- Newcastle United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Newcastle United earned a 4-0 home win in the reverse fixture.
- Why bettors should look at the total for Wednesday’s fixture.
Coming off two straight Premier League wins, Crystal Palace welcomes Newcastle United to Selhurst Park on Wednesday.
Manager Oliver Glasner’s side captured all three points in a 5-2 thriller on Sunday at home. That came after a 1-0 win at Liverpool in the previous game.
However, they’ll face a Newcastle side that’s unbeaten in their last four games (W3-D1) and thrashed Crystal Palace 4-0 at St. James’ Park.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace
- Newcastle United Moneyline: +140
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +175
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)
EPL Prediction – Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace
Total Over 2.5 Goals (-165)
Although it’s a heavy price to lay on Wednesday, there’s ample evidence supporting a high-scoring contest in London.
Bettors have now witnessed six Crystal Palace matches where both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise played at least an hour.
Glasner’s side has scored in all six of those games, with five clearing 2.5 goals. The lone failure? Their 1-0 win over Liverpool in a game that saw 4.7 combined expected goals.
Their underlying metrics take a big jump as well with that duo available.
Sample the six aforementioned matches, and bettors will find Palace created 1.53 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.77 post-shot expected goals per 90, per fbref.com.
For the entire season, the Eagles are sitting on 1.21 xG per 90 minutes and 1.2 psxG per 90 minutes.
That’s going to help them tremendously against Newcastle United, a side that ranks 15th in non-penalty expected goals allowed per 90 minutes.
Plus, Palace created 1.2 xG at St. James’ Park without Eze and Olise. Expect them to contribute a goal at minimum with two not outside the realm of possibility.
All that said, Palace has been a mess defensively since losing Marc Guehi to injury, particularly against good competition.
Since losing Guehi on February 3, Palace has played four games against teams averaging north of 1.5 npxG per 90 minutes (Newcastle averages 1.75).
They’ve allowed at least three goals in three of four and at least 1.4 expected goals in all four matches.
Crystal Palace has also struggled immensely against Newcastle United. In their last three meetings, Newcastle has created 2.16 xG per 90 vs. Palace.
Finally, overs are 65% this season when a home dog faces a team averaging at least 1.7 goals per game, including 5-2 when Newcastle is the road team.
Newcastle United Form
April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W
April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W
April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D
March 30 vs. West Ham United: 4-3, W
March 16 at Man City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)
Crystal Palace Form
April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W
April 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W
April 6 vs. Man City: 2-4, L
April 2 at Bournemouth: 0-1, L
March 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
