- Time to buy Tottenham at home off road success?
- Can Liverpool defense hold up against the powerful Spurs attack?
- Read on for my full analysis and best bet.
It’s the marquee fixture of this weekend’s slate as I’m set to provide a Premier League prediction for Tottenham vs. Liverpool.
Hosts Spurs enter this fixture fresh off a 2-2 draw against North London rivals Arsenal. Liverpool, meanwhile, clobbered West Ham United 3-1 at home.
Those results see these sides sit fourth and second, respectively, in the table.
What’s the best bet for their head-to-head meeting on Saturday? Let’s dive into my pick — EPL odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
Tottenham vs. Liverpool Betting Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur Draw, No Bet (+115)
Spurs lost both meetings against Liverpool last season, but the underlying metrics suggest these sides are mighty close.
In the most recent meeting – at Anfield, nonetheless – Tottenham lost 4-3 but stayed within 0.17 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
In the meeting at Tottenham, the hosts lost 2-1 but won the expected goals battle 1.21 to 1.18 and the big chances battle 4-2, again per fotmob.com.
So far this season, Liverpool’s dominance has largely come at home. In trips to Chelsea, Newcastle United and Wolves, manager Jurgen Klopp’s side has posted a +0.23 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Just against the former two sides, though, it’s a -0.6 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
That will put them in trouble against a Spurs side that looked solid at home against Manchester United. In that match, manager Ange Postecoglou’s side won the expected goals on target battle 1.77 to 1.46.
Spurs also enter this match fresh off a 2-2 draw at Arsenal, where they won the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.5 to 1.2.
If the Spurs attack continues to flourish, I see little reason they can’t bag at least a point at home against Liverpool, who struggle to defend away from home.
Over their last 22 road matches, Liverpool has surrendered 1.58 expected goals per 90 minutes, up from an average of 1.05 xGA per 90 at home.
Their offense generally takes a step back, too, with Liverpool creating 0.56 expected goals fewer away from home over that same span.
Add in Sunday’s visitors earned all three points in only six road matches last year, and I’ll take Tottenham as a home underdog so long as they’re available at +105 or better.
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