- Man City is a -1.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- City earned a 5-1 win in the previous head-to-head meeting.
- Why bettors should expect a high-scoring contest on Saturday in London.
Before Saturday’s first Premier League match of Matchday 37, I’m here to offer a Fulham vs. Man City prediction.
Both teams enter this game fresh off a good result. Fulham captured a point as road underdogs to Brentford last weekend while Man City thrashed Wolves 5-1 at home.
That marks four wins on the bounce in all competitions for City, who beat Fulham 5-1 at the Etihad earlier this season.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Man City vs. Fulham
- Man City Moneyline: -400
- Fulham Moneyline: +950
- Draw Moneyline: +575
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)
Premier League Prediction – Man City vs. Fulham
Total Over 3.5 Goals (-120)
Perhaps their premature exit from the Champions League was a blessing in disguise for Manchester City’s attack.
Recently, City have shown they can boss bad defenses. Even if you remove their two penalties against Wolves, bettors will find they generated 3.17 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
Although they created only 2.3 combined xG at Brighton and Forest, both of those teams rank sixth or better in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.
The three matches prior to those games are more representative of how City’s attack will perform on Saturday.
Against Luton Town, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace — two of which are bottom half npxGA per 90 sides — City created 3.2 xG per 90 minutes.
Most impressive within that sample is the fact they created 1.9 xG and 3.1 psxG at Crystal Palace, a side seventh in npxGA per 90 minutes this season.
This season, Fulham are far worse in terms of their defensive output.
The Cottagers are 11th in npxGA per 90 minutes and surrendered 2.4 non-penalty psxG at the Etihad.
However, they’ve struggled recently against quality attacking sides. In a recent home fixture against Liverpool, Fulham allowed 2.1 post-shot expected goals.
All of that said, City has looked vulnerable defensively in recent road matches.
Although they’ve kept two consecutive clean sheets away from home, one was undeserved by expected goals. For the season, City have allowed at least one goal in 12 of 17 road matches.
On the flip side, Fulham has scored at least one goal in seven of their last nine home matches.
Sample all matches against City, Liverpool and Arsenal this season and bettors will find Fulham have scored at least once in all five.
Finally, this game is a system match.
Since 2012-13, overs in games featuring a home dog that saw their last game go under the total by at least two goals are 48-25-1 (65.8%) to the over, assuming two factors:
- The closing total is 2.5, 3 or 3.5
- The road team’s average number of goals scored is greater than 1.4
As a result, I’ll bet on goals Saturday at Craven Cottage.
Man City Form
May 4 vs. Wolves: 5-1, W
April 28 at Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W
April 25 at Brighton: 4-0, W
April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
April 17 vs. Real Madrid: 1-1, D (Champions League)
Fulham Form
May 4 at Brentford: 0-0, D
April 27 vs. Crystal Palace: 1-1, D
April 21 vs. Liverpool: 1-3, L
April 14 at West Ham: 2-0, W
April 6 vs. Newcastle United: 0-1, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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