- Fulham is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- Wolves has lost nine of its last 11 EPL away matches following a win.
- My Fulham vs. Wolves prediction is for Fulham to earn all three points.
On Saturday, Fulham will go for a third straight league win with a home fixture against relegation-threatened Wolves.
Marco Silva’s side entered the break on a positive note, beating Crystal Palace 2-0 at Selhurst Park. That marks two wins on the bounce and three straight unbeaten for the Cottagers.
Wolves finally earned a win with a 2-0 victory over Southampton at home. Still, Gary O’Neil’s side sits 19th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Fulham vs. Wolves prediction.
Premier League Odds: Fulham vs. Wolves
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | +0.5 (+110) | 2.5 (-150) | +360 |
| Fulham | -0.5 (-160) | 2.5 (+110) | -145 |
| Draw | +290 |
Premier League Betting: Fulham vs. Wolves Prediction
Based on Fulham’s potential positive regression and their strength at home, my Fulham vs. Wolves prediction is an SGP: Fulham Moneyline & Over 1.5 Goals (-110).
The crux of this play is the Fulham moneyline, but I’ll use over 1.5 goals to drive the price down. Last season, both club meetings cleared 1.5 goals and 1.5 xG.
That said, I’m not sure the market has caught up to Fulham’s strength.
Only six sides own a stronger expected goal differential than Silva’s, which has yet to lose a match on expected goals at Craven Cottage.
Plus, Fulham completely dominated the last meeting with Wolves.
As road underdogs, Fulham posted a 2.7-0.8 edge on expected goals despite losing the fixture 2-1 at Molineux.
Over the last two meetings between these clubs, Fulham owns a +3.42 xG edge. Even if you remove all penalties, it’s still a +2.63 edge.
Bettors also possess data on how Fulham performs against weak opposition at home. Earlier this year, they dispatched Leicester City 2-1 with a +1.2 xG edge, per fbref.com.
All of that is to say the market vastly undervalues Fulham, which finds itself in a historically profitable spot.
Since 2012, home favorites between -245 and +112 are 96-38 when they have nine, 14 or 15 days between games.
Against a previous market favorite: 48-12, including 23-5 when they failed to win the previous meeting.
Wolves have also struggled massively away from home, even against mid-table squads.
Trips to Brentford and Nottingham Forest resulted in a draw and loss. However, Wolves lost both by at least one post-shot xG.
Take the hosts to earn all three points on Saturday.
