- Ipswich Town is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Bournemouth.
- Bournemouth has scored at least one goal in 24 of its last 25 EPL matches as a favorite.
- My Ipswich Town vs. Bournemouth prediction focuses on the Bournemouth team total.
Off a win as home dogs against Tottenham, Bournemouth travel to Ipswich Town seeking a third consecutive victory.
The Cherries thoroughly bossed Tottenham in the midweek. Although the final score finished 1-0, Bournemouth won the expected goals battle 3.2-0.6.
Ipswich suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Crystal Palace on Tuesday, their second consecutive defeat. Currently, Ipswich occupies the final spot in the relegation zone.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Ipswich Town vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Ipswich Town vs. Bournemouth Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | -0.5 (+100) | 2.5 (-145) | +105 |
| Ipswich Town | +0.5 (-135) | 2.5 (+105) | +240 |
| Draw | +260 |
Ipswich Town vs. Bournemouth Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s strong attacking metrics and their expected positive regression, my Ipswich Town vs. Bournemouth prediction is Bournemouth Over 1.5 Goals (-115).
I’m doing a bit of betting calculus for this bet, which is a profitable one based on historical data.
Since 2021, matches featuring a total of 2.5 with a road team averaging between 1.3 and 2.5 goals are 63% to the over, assuming the hosts lost their last match by 1-3 goals.
Rather than laying -145 on over 2.5 goals, I’ll save some juice and take the correlated team total that would drive this game over the total.
Bournemouth have run so unlucky offensively this season. They’ve scored 21 goals through 14 matches compared to 27 expected goals, per fbref.com.
That bad luck continued on Thursday against Tottenham. Andoni Iraola’s side managed only one goal off 3.2 expected and seven big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Even if you remove a fluky match at Wolves where Bournemouth scored three penalties, their last three matches proved very unlucky.
Against Tottenham, Brentford and Brighton, Bournemouth scored four goals off 7.4 expected.
Now they get an Ipswich defense ranking near the bottom of most defensive metrics.
The Tractor Boys rank 18th in expected goals against and non-penalty expected goals against while ranking 17th in post-shot expected goals against.
Kieran McKenna’s side posted some concerning defensive metrics in the midweek against Palace.
Against a side nine spots worse than Bournemouth in non-penalty expected goals, Ipswich surrendered 1.6 xG and 1.3 post-shot xG, per fbref.com.
But this marks the first time Ipswich play a top-five npxG attack at home since Matchday 1. As a result, this rates out an outstanding sell-high spot on the Cherries attack.
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