- Ipswich Town is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Four of Ipswich's last five EPL matches have resulted in a draw.
- My Ipswich Town vs. Everton prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
It’s a potential relegation six-pointer on Saturday at Portman Road, with Ipswich Town hosting Everton.
Ipswich’s run of four straight draws came to an end at West Ham. Just before the international break, the Tractor Boys fell 4-1 as road dogs to the Hammers.
Everton’s positive run continued with a 0-0 home draw against Newcastle United. That marks three straight unbeaten for Sean Dyche’s squad after starting the season 0-4 SU.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Ipswich Town vs. Everton prediction.
Premier League Odds: Ipswich Town vs. Everton
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | +0.5 (-185) | 2.5 (-130) | +188 |
| Ipswich Town | -0.5 (+125) | 2.5 (-110) | +140 |
| Draw | +240 |
Premier League Betting: Ipswich Town vs. Everton Prediction
Based on Everton’s strong defensive record and a historically profitable system, my prediction is a Same Game Parlay: Everton +0.5 & Ipswich Town Under 1.5 Goals (+105).
While a potential Jarrad Branthwaite absence is slightly concerning, Everton has shown they can defend well against Premier League newcomers in his absence.
At Leicester City, the Toffees allowed only 0.7 expected goals and didn’t allow a shot on target worth more than 0.1 post-shot xG until the 73rd minute.
In a cup match vs. Southampton, Everton allowed only 0.5 expected goals and held the Saints under 1.5 goals, albeit as home favorites.
Ipswich has cleared this number only once this season in a home match against Aston Villa.
However, Everton are a markedly better defense than Villa. Last season, Everton ranked fourth in non-penalty expected goals against, while Villa finished 13th.
From there, I’ll add the Toffees to do no worse than a result.
Dating back to last season, Everton has played eight games against newly-promoted clubs. Dyche’s side is 7-1 vs. +0.5 in those games, yet they’re 8-0 based on expected goals.
They also match a historically profitable system in this spot.
Half-goal underdogs against previous road underdogs in games 2-14 are 96-42 ATS since 2012, assuming the spread juice falls between -205 and +101.
When those dogs are playing a team off a multi-goal defeat: 31-7 ATS, including 13-3 in the last three seasons.
Everton is currently -185 to earn points, so I’ll pair that with the Ipswich team total for a plus-money price. Bet at -110 or better on Saturday.
Ipswich Town Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 at West Ham: 1-4, L
- Sept. 29 vs. Aston Villa: 2-2, D
- Sept. 21 at Southampton: 1-1, D
- Sept. 14 at Brighton: 0-0, D
- Aug. 31 vs. Fulham: 1-1, D
Everton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 vs. Newcastle United: 0-0, D
- Sept. 28 vs. Crystal Palace: 2-1, W
- Sept. 21 at Leicester City: 1-1, D
- Sept. 17 vs. Southampton: 1-1, D (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 14 at Aston Villa: 2-3, L
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