- Leicester City is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Brighton.
- Over 2.5 Goals has hit in each of Leicester's last 13 EPL Sunday day matches.
- My Leicester City vs. Brighton prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Leicester City look for a second straight result on Sunday at home as the Foxes welcome Brighton & Hove Albion.
Leicester proved opportunistic in their first match under Ruud van Nistelroy. They lost the xG battle against West Ham, but the hosts amassed 2.97 post-shot xG in a 3-1 win.
Brighton traveled to Fulham in the midweek as road dogs and fell 3-1 at Craven Cottage. That loss dropped the Seagulls to fifth in the Premier League table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Leicester City vs. Brighton prediction.
Leicester City vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | -0.5 (-150) | 2.5 (-175) | -135 |
| Leicester City | +0.5 (+105) | 2.5 (+125) | +340 |
| Draw | +300 |
Leicester City vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on the strength of the Leicester attack and the lack of defensive quality on both sides, my Leicester City vs. Brighton prediction is a SGP: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-120).
Leicester has quietly scored in all but one league fixture this season. At the King Power Stadium, both teams to score six of seven to begin the season.
Leicester’s last three matches, all as market underdogs, have left me encouraged about their attack.
The Foxes created 1.1 expected goals at Chelsea, 1.1 at Brentford and followed it with 1.7 xG at home against West Ham.
Brighton is a flawed favorite when it comes to their defensive record.
They conceded at home to Southampton, a worse attack than Leicester, and have kept only one deserved road clean sheet based on expected goals.
But for as much confidence as I have in Leicester’s attack, their defense proves almost equally as terrible.
Both Brentford and West Ham cleared 2.4 expected goals against the Leicester defense, which ranks 19th in non-penalty xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Brighton’s midweek result creates a strong buy-low spot as it came against a Fulham defense sixth in that category.
Brighton has played two matches against promoted teams this season and crated 1.65 xG per 90 minutes.
History also suggests this is a good spot to back over 2.5 goals.
Since 2012, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals and a home underdog are 66% to the over, assuming two factors:
- The away team’s average number of goals falls between 1.2 and 2.5
- The away team’s last match cleared the pregame total by between 1.5 and 6 goals
Shrink the sample down to matches since 2022 and that hit rate improves to 37-16 (70%).
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