- Leicester City is a +0.5-goal home underdog against West Ham.
- West Ham has won six straight EPL night matches against promoted teams.
- My Leicester City vs. West Ham prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Two teams off bad losses meet on Tuesday night at King Power Stadium with Leicester City hosting West Ham United.
The Foxes took an early 1-0 lead at Brentford on Saturday, but the visitors conceded four unanswered goals to fall 4-1. Currently, Leicester sits 16th in the Premier League table.
West Ham lost 5-2 as home underdogs against Arsenal, ending a two-match unbeaten streak. That defeat leaves Julen Lopetegui’s side 14th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Leicester City vs. West Ham prediction.
Leicester City vs. West Ham Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | -0.5 (+135) | 2.5 (-145) | +145 |
| Leicester City | +0.5 (-190) | 2.5 (+100) | +170 |
| Draw | +250 |
Leicester City vs. West Ham Prediction
Based on the strength of West Ham’s attack and the weakness of both defenses, my Leicester City vs. West Ham prediction is a SGP: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110).
Lost in their 5-2 defeat against Arsenal is that the West Ham attack created loads of chances against the league’s best defense.
Lopetegui’s side generated 1.51 expected goals and 2.1 post-shot expected goals against a team third and first in the corresponding defensive categories, per fbref.com.
Now West Ham gets a Leicester defense near the bottom of those rankings.
Entering the weekend, the Foxes ranked 17th in post-shot expected goals against and 18th in expected goals against.
This season, West Ham has played only one opponent ranked 16th or worse in both defensive metrics. At home against Ipswich Town, the Hammers created 3.8 xG and 3.3 post-shot xG.
But I don’t trust West Ham’s defense on short rest against a team experiencing a “new manager bounce” offensively.
The Foxes have quietly scored in all but one league match this season. In the lone failure, Leicester operated without talisman Jamie Vardy.
That failure also came away from home. This year at King Power Stadium, Leicester created at least 0.5 post-shot xG in all but one match.
History also likes this game finishing over the total.
Since 2012, games featuring a home underdog with a total of 2.5 goals are 71% to the over, assuming two additional factors:
- The visitor’s last game cleared the pregame over/under by between 1.5 and 6.5 goals
- The visiting team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.2 and 1.8
Shrink the sample down to games occurring since the 2020 season and the over hit rate improves to 36-11 (76.6%).
Pair that percentage with Leicester’s ability to score at home and I’ll play this same game parlay for a slightly reduced price.
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