Liverpool vs. Everton Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Today – EPL, Oct. 21

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Liverpool vs. Everton Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Today - EPL, Oct. 21
(Alberto Pezzali/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 20, 2023, 11:56 AM
  • Liverpool is -1.5 goal favorite against Everton.
  • Liverpool has won two straight home matches against Everton.
  • Everton enter Saturday’s match a major positive regression candidate.

Before this weekend’s Premier League clash, I’m set to provide a Liverpool vs. Everton prediction. 

Hosts Liverpool enter this game fourth in the table. In their last match before the international break, the Reds drew 2-2 at Brighton.

Everton, meanwhile, have endured a weak start to the season. Ahead of the Mersyside Derby, the Toffees sit 16th in the Premier League table. 

Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at Anfield. 

Liverpool vs. Everton Odds

  • Liverpool to Win: -275
  • Everton to Win: +675
  • Liverpool vs. Everton Draw: +425
  • The Liverpool vs. Everton Over/Under is 3.5 Goals

Liverpool vs. Everton Prediction

Based on recent trends, the prediction for Liverpool vs. Everton is a Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-130). 

My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.


Oddsmakers are expecting goals in this match, and I can’t disagree with that game script. 

Everton’s underlying metrics largely drives that opinion.

Manager Sean Dyche’s side enters this match fourth in non-penalty expected goals. However, they’re eighth in non-penalty expected goals against, per fbref.com. 

But, Everton’s defensive record can largely be attributed to their weak schedule. In their lone road test – at Aston Villa – they surrendered 2.9 expected goals. 

Now they face a Liverpool attack ranking second in expected goals and fifth in non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com. 

At the same time, Everton’s fourth-ranked non-penalty expected goal offense faces a Liverpool defense 10th in non-penalty expected goals against. 

The Reds defense will also operate without left back Andy Robertson and don’t feature a midfield ball-stopper with Curtis Jones suspended and Thiago injured. 

As a result, bettors should expect some positive regression for Everton, who have scored nine goals off 14.7 expected. 

Add in the Liverpool offense has created at least two expected goals in all but three EPL matches this season, and I’ll back this same-game parlay at -140 or better.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.