Liverpool Prediction: 2024-25 EPL Betting Preview

The Jurgen Klopp era has come to an end at Liverpool. This season, new manager Arne Slot arrives from Feyenoord to lead the Reds.

Following a fifth-placed finish in 2022-23, Liverpool improved drastically. They finished third in the league last year while improving by 15 points.  

Since the 2017-18 EPL campaign, the Reds are the only side to deny Man City a Premier League title. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Liverpool odds and my betting predictions for Liverpool’s campaign. 

Liverpool Futures Odds

• League Winner: +700
• Top-4 Finish: -190
• Relegation Odds: +50000
• Top Goalscorer: Mohamed Salah (+1000), Darwin Nunez (+1600)

Liverpool Notable Permanent Additions

• Arne Slot, Manager (Feyenoord)

Liverpool Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season

I predict Liverpool will manage a top-4 finish this Premier League season. However, rather than laying -190, I’m choosing to wait for a better number during the season. 

The major move to speak of is Slot, who joins Manchester United’s Erik ten Hag as the next manager to jump from the Eredivisie to the Premier League. 

Slot inherits a team that made radical improvements year over year. However, it’s largely because they experienced a reversal in injury luck. 

In 2022-23, Liverpool players combined to miss 1,574 total days from injury, the third-most days in the league. 

Last year, fortunes flipped slightly. 

Liverpool still saw players combine to miss 1,383 days to injury, the 11th-most in the league, despite seeing the third-highest number of players injured (21). 

Still, Liverpool managed to perform better. In terms of their underlying metrics, they jumped from a +0.54 npxGDiff per 90 minutes in 2022-23 to a +0.94 npxGDiff per 90 last year. 

Their offense, which led the league in non-penalty expected goals per 90, scored 2.3 goals under post-shot expected. That suggests they could positively regress in 2024. 

However, there are also reasons to fade the Reds in 2024-25. 

First, Liverpool made a habit of coming from behind to win games. Last year, they picked up 28 points from losing positions, the most in the Premier League. 

Historically, teams that lead the league in that metric regress. Since the 2019-20 season, the four teams that have led the league in that category have fallen by 12.75 points the next year. 

Of those four teams, only one team has improved their points output year over year. 

Plus, they play a denser schedule this year as participants in the Champions League. 

Add in the unknowns surrounding Slot, and I’ll pass on betting Liverpool in any futures market before the season.