- Liverpool is a 1.5-goal home favorite against Brighton.
- Liverpool has lost only one of its last 40 EPL Saturday day home matches.
- My Liverpool vs. Brighton prediction is the Brighton moneyline.
For the second time in four days, Liverpool faces Brighton & Hove Albion.
After a midweek trip to the South Coast for the League Cup, Liverpool faces Brighton at Anfield on Saturday. The Reds enter this fixture with eight wins and a draw over their last nine.
Brighton have earned results in all but one league match this season and have earned results in three straight matches as an underdog.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs. Brighton prediction.
Premier League Odds: Liverpool vs. Brighton
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | +1.5 (-135) | 3.5 (+100) | +575 |
| Liverpool | -1.5 (-105) | 3.5 (-135) | -250 |
| Draw | +425 |
Premier League Betting: Liverpool vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on Brighton’s strong record as an underdog this year, my Liverpool vs. Brighton prediction is the Brighton Moneyline (+575).
This is largely a play on the price, so go small on this with your wager size. However, I like the outlook for the Seagulls as underdogs.
Brighton is 2-1-1 (W-D-L) as an underdog this season with wins over Tottenham and Newcastle United.
Liverpool has also shown they’re capable of falling as home favorites. Previously this season, the Reds fell 1-0 at home to Nottingham Forest with a -0.5 expected goal differential.
It’s also a solid buy-low spot on Brighton, which blew a 2-0 lead in the final five minutes against Wolves on Matchday 9.
That has to stick with a team as it prepares for the next match. Plus, bettors have seen Brighton have success against Liverpool.
Albeit at home, Brighton captured a 2-2 home draw vs. Liverpool last year. A 2-1 loss at Anfield looks worse, but it came without a number of key attackers for the Seagulls.
Dating back to the November 2020 meeting between these sides, Brighton have earned points in six of eight league meetings against Liverpool.
The visitors also match a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2012, underdogs priced between +203 and +961 in August or November-January are 33% SU, assuming three factors:
- The dog’s result in the last head-to-head meeting falls between -3 and -1
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +1
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +2
When those dogs are the road team: 35-65 SU for a 75.4% return on investment.
Based on those factors and Brighton’s familiarity with this team from a Wednesday meeting, I’ll take a small piece of the moneyline.
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