- Liverpool is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Fulham.
- Liverpool has won eight of its last nine EPL home matches.
- My Liverpool vs. Fulham prediction depends on a Fulham injury.
Seeking a ninth league win in their last 10 matches at Anfield, Liverpool welcomes Fulham on Saturday.
The Reds received some rest on Matchday 15 as a storm saw their match against Everton postponed. In their last league match, the Reds played to a 3-3 draw at Newcastle.
Fulham drew 1-1 against Arsenal on Matchday 15, extending their unbeaten run to three games. Currently, Marco Silva’s side sits 10th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Liverpool vs. Fulham prediction.
Liverpool vs. Fulham Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | +1.5 (-110) | 3.5 (+110) | +800 |
| Liverpool | -1.5 (-130) | 3.5 (-155) | -325 |
| Draw | +475 |
Liverpool vs. Fulham Prediction
If Joachim Anderson returns in central defense for Fulham, my Liverpool vs. Fulham prediction is the Fulham Spread (+1.5, -110) with a sprinkle on the Fulham Moneyline (+800).
However, if Anderson fails to feature in the Fulham XI, this game becomes a pass for me.
Silva’s side won’t feature Calvin Bassey, who picked up a suspension for yellow card accumulation.
If Anderson and Bassey miss out, it leaves Silva with his last two choices in central defense.
Either way, Fulham have proved a pesky underdog against strong teams this season.
They’ve stayed within the spread in all four games against Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham and Arsenal.
Liverpool represents the biggest test of the group, but Fulham stayed within this number in both head-to-head meetings last season.
What attracts me to this year’s version of Fulham is their ability to find quality chances early.
Fulham have opened the scoring in 11 of 15 league games this season, including both matches against Manchester City and Arsenal.
Liverpool have previously struggled out of the gates. This season in the league, 65% of Liverpool’s expected goals tally has come after halftime, per understat.com.
If Fulham can grab an early goal and sit on the lead, an upset could be in the cards. However, I don’t trust the visitors to accomplish that with a backup defense.
Fulham also matches a historically profitable system both against the spread and on the moneyline.
Since 2012, road dogs at +1.5 or +2 with 4-9 days between games are 71% ATS, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +3
- The game is played in August, November, December, February or May
Plus, dogs between +254 and +910 against a team with a win percentage north of 44% are 26% SU, assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is -1 or +0
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +2
- The underdog lost the previous game by no more than four goals.
Just over the last two years, those dogs are 12-14 SU.
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