Man City Prediction: 2024-25 EPL Betting Preview

Seeking their fifth straight Premier League title, Man City are the favorites in this year’s odds market. 

Since appointing Pep Guardiola prior to the 2016-17 season, City have enjoyed tremendous success. They’ve won the league six times in eight tries, including four straight titles. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Man City odds and my betting predictions for Man City’s campaign. 

Man City Futures Odds

• League Winner: +135
• Top-4 Finish: -1000
• Relegation Odds: +1000
• Top Goalscorer: Erling Haaland (-165), Phil Foden (+3300)

Man City Notable Permanent Additions

• Savinho, Winger (Troyes)

Man City Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season

Predicting the outcome of Man City’s campaign hinges so much on the fate of their financial fair play charges. 

That’s why bettors are seeing such high odds on a top-4 finish for City yet such short odds on relegation. As it stands, City faces 115 charges of financial breaches from 2009-10 to 2017-18. 

From a statistical standpoint, there’s no denying City are the best Premier League team. 

Although they finished behind Arsenal in expected goal differential per 90 minutes last year, they played without Kevin De Bruyne for 20 games. 

With De Bruyne, City finished 15-3-0 (W-D-L). Without him, they posted a 13-4-3 (W-D-L) record. 

Additionally, key defender John Stones started only 12 league games and featured in only 16 Premier League contests. 

With Stones in the Starting XI last year, City finished 9-1-1 SU. 

A return to health for both those players should improve City’s statistical outlook. 

Plus, this remains a team that has dropped all three points only one time at home over the last two seasons. 

At the same time, the case against Manchester City is that they’re overly reliant on penalty kicks. 

Sample the last two seasons and bettors will find City have posted a +1.2 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

Remove all penalty kicks, and it drops to a +1.07 xGDiff per 90 minutes. 

Additionally, top opponents have steadily figured out how to earn results against City. 

In 2021-22, City earned 20 of a possible 30 points against fellow Big Six teams. In 2022-23, they earned 21 of a possible 30 points. 

Last year, they earned only 15 points against such teams with a 3-6-1 (W-D-L) record. 

Part of that record can be attributed to the aforementioned injury concerns, but it’s becoming clear the gap between City and the chasers isn’t large. 

Pair that with the negative line move on City’s title odds — they opened at -120 in June — and I’ll stay away from betting their title odds.