- Man City is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Manchester United.
- Manchester United has won four straight EPL Week 16 away matches.
- My Man City vs. Manchester United prediction is the United moneyline.
The latest edition of the Manchester Derby features on Sunday at the Etihad, with City hosting United.
Both clubs are in a small crisis. City dropped points at Crystal Palace last weekend, extending Its road winless run to four league matches in a row.
United fell 3-2 at home against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 15. That marks a second straight defeat for new manager Ruben Amorim and United, currently 13th in the league.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Manchester United prediction.
Man City vs. Manchester United Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | +1.5 (-175) | 3.5 (+105) | +450 |
| Manchester City | -1.5 (+120) | 3.5 (-145) | -190 |
| Draw | +375 |
Man City vs. Manchester United Prediction
Based on Man City’s defensive absentees and Amorim’s familiarity with Manchester City, my Man City vs. Manchester United prediction is the Manchester United Moneyline (+450).
A small wager will suffice here on United, as this is largely a fade of Manchester City.
Guardiola’s team remains decimated by injuries, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Rico Lewis is suspended for Sunday’s match. There’s also a chance John Stones, Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake will miss Sunday’s clash against United.
Pair those potential absentees with Rodri’s season-ending surgery, and I question how City’s defense holds up against United’s counterattack.
New United manager Amorim also has previous experience pulling off an upset win over Manchester City.
With Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League, Amorim guided his side to a 4-1 home win over Manchester City.
While that match featured two penalty kicks for Sporting that created the illusion of a big margin, Sporting’s attack produced strong metrics from open play.
Lisbon created 1.3 non-penalty xG against City, and Amorim now manages a side with (arguably) better attacking players.
Plus, these sides met earlier in the year for the Community Shield. The match finished 1-1 at the end of regular time, with United carrying a 1.05-0.5 edge on expected goals.
History also likes this spot for United to pull off a road upset.
Since 2012, dogs between +254 and +910 against a team with a win percentage north of 44% are 26% SU, assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is -1 or +0
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +2
- The underdog lost the previous game by no more than four goals.
Just over the last two years, those dogs are 12-14 SU. Take a flier on the United moneyline.
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