- Man City is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Brighton.
- Manchester City is 21-2 in their last 23 home matches following a league loss.
- My Man City vs. Brighton prediction is the total over 3.5 goals.
Brighton look to do the double over the reigning champions on Saturday as they face a trip to Manchester City.
A late penalty gave Brighton all three points as home favorites against Fulham on Saturday. Following the result, Brighton moved to sixth in the league table.
Man City fell 1-0 to Nottingham Forest as road favorites on Saturday. Paired with Chelsea’s win over Leicester City, City fell out of the Champions League positions.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Man City vs. Brighton prediction.
Man City vs. Brighton: Premier League Odds
Man City vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on the chance quality in the last meeting between these sides and the strength of both attacks, my Man City vs. Brighton prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+110).
When these sides met earlier in the year, Brighton earned a 2-1 victory. Whether the outright win was justified or not, the underlying metrics suggest more goals should have come.
City and Brighton combined for three goals off 4.51 expected goals and 4.53 post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
City proved particularly unlucky, scoring once off 2.22 xG and 2.98 post-shot expected goals.
Brighton, which could play without two defenders that featured in that match, have struggled in trips to strong attacks.
In road matches against Liverpool and Chelsea, the Seagulls surrendered 2.9 xG per 90 minutes and 2.45 post-shot xGA per 90.
Each of those matches reached three total goals with one clearing 3.5 goals.
The match that did – a 4-2 Brighton loss at Chelsea – features a similar profile to this match.
City own a top-five attack by both xG and post-shot xG while sitting eighth and 10th in the corresponding defensive categories.
Chelsea, meanwhile, own a slightly better attack AND defense.
That should allow chances aplenty for Brighton, which sits a spot behind Manchester City in post-shot expected goals.
History also likes this match to clear 3.5 goals on Saturday.
This season, matches featuring a 3.5-goal total are 15-7 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 2
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.2 and 1.5
Brighton sit at 1.6 and 1.4 in those respective categories. Pair that with the high-scoring nature of the last meeting, and I like this match clearing 3.5 goals.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-13-5 | 44.6% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-10-1 | 62.5% | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 8-3-2 | 69.2% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 16-11-1 | 58.9% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 9-4-1 | 67.9% |
| Chelsea | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-9-4 | 60.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-15-2 | 42.9% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-15-1 | 44.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-19-0 | 32.1% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 11-13-4 | 46.4% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-10-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% |
| Southampton | 10-15-3 | 41.1% | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 14-13-1 | 51.8% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 9-4-0 | 69.2% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12-13-3 | 48.2% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 15-10-3 | 55 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-6-7 | 51 | 12 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-7 | 49 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-9 | 47 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-10-6 | 46 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-8 | 44 | 13 |
| Fulham | 11-9-8 | 42 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Brentford | 11-5-12 | 38 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-14 | 34 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-7-12 | 34 | -6 |
| Everton | 7-12-9 | 33 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-6-13 | 33 | -16 |
| Wolves | 6-5-17 | 23 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-17 | 17 | -32 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-19 | 17 | -37 |
| Southampton | 2-3-23 | 9 | -48 |
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