Manchester United vs. Sheffield United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes, celebrates after scoring the opening goal with a penalty kick during an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Everton at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, March 9, 2024.
(AP Photo/Dave Thompson)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 23, 2024, 11:50 AM
  • Manchester United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
  • The Red Devils earned a 2-1 road win against Sheffield in the last meeting.
  • Why the market is overvaluing Manchester United as home favorites.

Following their FA Cup semifinal win against Coventry City on Sunday, Manchester United return home to face Premier League cellar-dwellers Sheffield United. 

The Red Devils needed penalty kicks to reach the FA Cup final after blowing a 3-0 advantage late in the second half. 

As for Sheffield United, they struggled at home against relegation-threatened Burnley. As short home dogs, they fell 4-1 to the Clarets. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United

  • Manchester United Moneyline: -350
  • Sheffield United Moneyline: +750
  • Draw Moneyline: +500
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)

EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United

Sheffield United Spread (+1.5, +100)

If bettors learned anything from United’s FA Cup semifinal on Sunday, it’s that the backdoor is always open. 

Up 3-0 on Championship side Coventry City, United surrendered three goals in the final 20 minutes + injury time to send the match to extra time. 

United also ran fairly lucky in that match as they lost the post-shot expected goals battle 1.55 to 2.23, per 

Now they have to turn around and play on short rest. Although the odds suggest they’ll win the match outright, I question if they cover a lofty spread. 

Sample nine matches this season in which United closed at -145 or higher and bettors will find they’re 6-3 SU, but have seen five of those wins come by a single goal. 

Since the beginning of last season, they’re 16-7 SU at -145 or higher but have covered -1.5 in only seven of those 23 matches. 

It’s also not as if they dominated Sheffield United when they last played. United won the match 2-1 but only captured the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.1 to 0.63. 

Plus, there’s a historically profitable system recommending a bet on Sheffield United. 

Since 2012-13, road dogs with a win percentage under 30% are 63.7% ATS, assuming three factors:

  • The spread is between +1.5 and +2.5
  • The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -5
  • The team’s game number is between 17 and 38

Just this season, those teams are 14-2-1 ATS. 

One final note with a slight caveat – history suggests Sheffield are worth a flier on the moneyline. 

Since 2012-13, road dogs between +355 and +2000 with a win percentage under 28% are 18.9% SU for a 45% return on investment, assuming two factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1
  • The team’s game number is between 18 and 38

However, I’m obliged to mention three teams have fit that profile after allowing two or more goals in seven straight games, a moniker that fits Sheffield. 

Those teams are 0-3 SU in such spots. 

As a result, I’d prefer to take a moneyline position on Burnley at Old Trafford on Saturday. 

That said, even money on Sheffield to stay within a goal is worth a wager on Wednesday. 

Manchester United Form 

April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)

April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D

April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

Sheffield United Form

April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L

April 13 vs. Brentford: 0-2, L

April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L

March 30 vs. Fulham: 3-3, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.