Manchester United vs. Sheffield United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes, celebrates after scoring the opening goal with a penalty kick during an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Everton at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, March 9, 2024.
(AP Photo/Dave Thompson)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 23, 2024, 11:50 AM
  • Manchester United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
  • The Red Devils earned a 2-1 road win against Sheffield in the last meeting.
  • Why the market is overvaluing Manchester United as home favorites.

Following their FA Cup semifinal win against Coventry City on Sunday, Manchester United return home to face Premier League cellar-dwellers Sheffield United. 

The Red Devils needed penalty kicks to reach the FA Cup final after blowing a 3-0 advantage late in the second half. 

As for Sheffield United, they struggled at home against relegation-threatened Burnley. As short home dogs, they fell 4-1 to the Clarets. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United

  • Manchester United Moneyline: -350
  • Sheffield United Moneyline: +750
  • Draw Moneyline: +500
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)

EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United

Sheffield United Spread (+1.5, +100)

If bettors learned anything from United’s FA Cup semifinal on Sunday, it’s that the backdoor is always open. 

Up 3-0 on Championship side Coventry City, United surrendered three goals in the final 20 minutes + injury time to send the match to extra time. 

United also ran fairly lucky in that match as they lost the post-shot expected goals battle 1.55 to 2.23, per fotmob.com. 

Now they have to turn around and play on short rest. Although the odds suggest they’ll win the match outright, I question if they cover a lofty spread. 

Sample nine matches this season in which United closed at -145 or higher and bettors will find they’re 6-3 SU, but have seen five of those wins come by a single goal. 

Since the beginning of last season, they’re 16-7 SU at -145 or higher but have covered -1.5 in only seven of those 23 matches. 

It’s also not as if they dominated Sheffield United when they last played. United won the match 2-1 but only captured the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.1 to 0.63. 

Plus, there’s a historically profitable system recommending a bet on Sheffield United. 

Since 2012-13, road dogs with a win percentage under 30% are 63.7% ATS, assuming three factors:

  • The spread is between +1.5 and +2.5
  • The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -5
  • The team’s game number is between 17 and 38

Just this season, those teams are 14-2-1 ATS. 

One final note with a slight caveat – history suggests Sheffield are worth a flier on the moneyline. 

Since 2012-13, road dogs between +355 and +2000 with a win percentage under 28% are 18.9% SU for a 45% return on investment, assuming two factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1
  • The team’s game number is between 18 and 38

However, I’m obliged to mention three teams have fit that profile after allowing two or more goals in seven straight games, a moniker that fits Sheffield. 

Those teams are 0-3 SU in such spots. 

As a result, I’d prefer to take a moneyline position on Burnley at Old Trafford on Saturday. 

That said, even money on Sheffield to stay within a goal is worth a wager on Wednesday. 

Manchester United Form 

April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)

April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D

April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

Sheffield United Form

April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L

April 13 vs. Brentford: 0-2, L

April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L

March 30 vs. Fulham: 3-3, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667
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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.