- Manchester United is a -1.5-goal favorite against Sheffield United.
- The Red Devils earned a 2-1 road win against Sheffield in the last meeting.
- Why the market is overvaluing Manchester United as home favorites.
Following their FA Cup semifinal win against Coventry City on Sunday, Manchester United return home to face Premier League cellar-dwellers Sheffield United.
The Red Devils needed penalty kicks to reach the FA Cup final after blowing a 3-0 advantage late in the second half.
As for Sheffield United, they struggled at home against relegation-threatened Burnley. As short home dogs, they fell 4-1 to the Clarets.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United
- Manchester United Moneyline: -350
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +750
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)
EPL Prediction – Manchester United vs. Sheffield United
Sheffield United Spread (+1.5, +100)
If bettors learned anything from United’s FA Cup semifinal on Sunday, it’s that the backdoor is always open.
Up 3-0 on Championship side Coventry City, United surrendered three goals in the final 20 minutes + injury time to send the match to extra time.
United also ran fairly lucky in that match as they lost the post-shot expected goals battle 1.55 to 2.23, per fotmob.com.
Now they have to turn around and play on short rest. Although the odds suggest they’ll win the match outright, I question if they cover a lofty spread.
Sample nine matches this season in which United closed at -145 or higher and bettors will find they’re 6-3 SU, but have seen five of those wins come by a single goal.
Since the beginning of last season, they’re 16-7 SU at -145 or higher but have covered -1.5 in only seven of those 23 matches.
It’s also not as if they dominated Sheffield United when they last played. United won the match 2-1 but only captured the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.1 to 0.63.
Plus, there’s a historically profitable system recommending a bet on Sheffield United.
Since 2012-13, road dogs with a win percentage under 30% are 63.7% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The spread is between +1.5 and +2.5
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and -5
- The team’s game number is between 17 and 38
Just this season, those teams are 14-2-1 ATS.
One final note with a slight caveat – history suggests Sheffield are worth a flier on the moneyline.
Since 2012-13, road dogs between +355 and +2000 with a win percentage under 28% are 18.9% SU for a 45% return on investment, assuming two factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -1 and +1
- The team’s game number is between 18 and 38
However, I’m obliged to mention three teams have fit that profile after allowing two or more goals in seven straight games, a moniker that fits Sheffield.
Those teams are 0-3 SU in such spots.
As a result, I’d prefer to take a moneyline position on Burnley at Old Trafford on Saturday.
That said, even money on Sheffield to stay within a goal is worth a wager on Wednesday.
Manchester United Form
April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup, United Win on PK’s)
April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D
April 7 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L
March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D
Sheffield United Form
April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L
April 13 vs. Brentford: 0-2, L
April 7 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 4 at Liverpool: 1-3, L
March 30 vs. Fulham: 3-3, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Everton | West Ham United | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Ipswich Town | Nottingham Forest | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Manchester City | Brighton | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Wolves | Mar. 15 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Bournemouth | Brentford | Mar. 15 | 1:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Arsenal | Chelsea | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Fulham | Tottenham | Mar. 16 | 9:30 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Leicester City | Manchester United | Mar. 16 | 3 p.m. | King Power Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 21-7-1 | 70 | 42 |
| Arsenal | 15-10-3 | 55 | 28 |
| Nottingham Forest | 15-6-7 | 51 | 12 |
| Chelsea | 14-7-7 | 49 | 17 |
| Manchester City | 14-5-9 | 47 | 15 |
| Newcastle United | 14-5-9 | 47 | 9 |
| Brighton | 12-10-6 | 46 | 6 |
| Aston Villa | 12-9-8 | 45 | -4 |
| Bournemouth | 12-8-8 | 44 | 13 |
| Fulham | 11-9-8 | 42 | 3 |
| Crystal Palace | 10-9-9 | 39 | 3 |
| Brentford | 11-5-12 | 38 | 4 |
| Tottenham | 10-4-14 | 34 | 14 |
| Manchester United | 9-7-12 | 34 | -6 |
| Everton | 7-12-9 | 33 | -4 |
| West Ham | 9-6-13 | 33 | -16 |
| Wolves | 6-5-17 | 23 | -19 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-8-17 | 17 | -32 |
| Leicester City | 4-5-19 | 17 | -37 |
| Southampton | 2-3-23 | 9 | -48 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 10-13-5 | 44.6% | 3-7-3 | 34.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% |
| Aston Villa | 11-17-1 | 40.0% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% |
| Bournemouth | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 50.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Brentford | 17-10-2 | 62.1% | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-11-1 | 60.3% | 7-7-0 | 59.0% | 10-4-1 | 70.0% |
| Chelsea | 10-16-2 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% | 5-8-1 | 39.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 6-6-3 | 50.0% | 10-3-0 | 76.9% |
| Everton | 15-10-4 | 58.6% | 7-6-2 | 53.3% | 8-4-2 | 64.3% |
| Fulham | 16-10-2 | 60.7% | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 9-3-2 | 71.4% |
| Ipswich Town | 11-16-2 | 41.4% | 4-11-0 | 26.7% | 7-5-2 | 57.1% |
| Leicester City | 12-15-1 | 44.6% | 5-9-0 | 35.7% | 7-6-1 | 53.6% |
| Liverpool | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 6-7-1 | 46.4% | 9-6-0 | 60.0% |
| Manchester City | 9-20-0 | 31.0% | 4-10-0 | 28.6% | 5-10-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 11-13-4 | 46.4% | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 5-6-2 | 46.2% |
| Newcastle United | 15-12-1 | 55.4% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 7-7-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-10-0 | 65.5% | 9-5-0 | 64.3% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 10-16-3 | 39.7% | 2-11-1 | 17.9% | 8-5-2 | 60.0% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 11-16-1 | 41.1% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 6-7-0 | 46.2% |
| West Ham United | 15-13-1 | 53.4% | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 10-4-0 | 71.4% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 13-13-3 | 50.0% | 5-7-2 | 42.9% | 8-6-1 | 56.7% |
