Manchester United vs. Southampton Prediction, Odds & Preview

Following a strong performance against Liverpool, Manchester United return home for a league meeting against Southampton. 

As heavy underdogs, the Red Devils captured a point at Anfield in a 2-2 draw. Still, United sit 13th in the league table, having not earned all three points since December 15. 

Southampton’s Matchday 20 result left a lot to be desired as the Saints fell 5-0 against Brentford. That marks the third straight league defeat for new manager Ivan Juric. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Manchester United vs. Southampton prediction. 

Manchester United vs. Southampton Odds, Premier League

Manchester United vs. Southampton Prediction

Based on Southampton’s defensive struggles and United’s success in the earlier meeting, my Manchester United vs. Southampton prediction is Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals (+100). 

This is largely a price play against the Premier League’s worst defense. 

Southampton are shipping 2.3 expected goals per 90 minutes and 2.22 post-shot xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

While it feels slightly dangerous buying against a team that just surrendered five goals off 4.7 expected, United rate out as a positive regression candidate offensively. 

For the season, United have scored 23 goals off 28 expected, per fbref.com. 

Plus, United’s best performance of the season came earlier against Southampton. 

The Red Devils notched three tallies in their trip to St. Mary’s Stadium off 2.6 xG and 3.6 post-shot xG. 

One goal came late in stoppage time after Southampton saw a defender sent off, but United still created 2.4 xG and 2.8 post-shot xG if you eliminate that goal. 

Since appointing Ruben Amorim, United has shown a flourishing attack at home. 

Amorim’s United created 1.6 xG and post-shot xG against Nottingham Forest before generating 2.2 xG and 1.5 post-shot xG against Bournemouth. 

Those two teams rank third and sixth in expected goals allowed, respectively. In terms of post-shot xGA, they’re third and 11th. 

That should allow for plenty of chances against a Southampton defense 20th in each category. 

Pair that with the fact Southampton is a negative regression candidate defensively – 44 goals against off 46 expected – and the plus money presents a decent option for bettors.