Newcastle United vs. Man City Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Today – EPL, Jan. 13

min read
Newcastle's Alexander Isak during the English Premier League soccer match between Newcastle and Aston Villa.
(Steve Luciano/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 12, 2024, 4:48 PM
  • Manchester City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Newcastle United.
  • City will play without talisman Erling Haaland on Saturday.
  • Newcastle have proved a very good home team under Eddie Howe.

Before Saturday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Newcastle United vs. Man City prediction. 

Coming off FA Cup fixtures, Manchester City are inching closer to controlling the title race. With a game in hand on current leaders Liverpool, City sit five points behind the Reds. 

Newcastle, meanwhile, dropped to ninth in the Premier League and have lost three straight matches in the league, including a 4-2 defeat at Anfield on New Year’s Day. 

Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at St. James’ Park and my best bet for the match. 

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Betting Odds

  • Newcastle United to Win: +400
  • Manchester City to Win: -160
  • Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Draw: +320
  • The Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Over/Under is 2.5 Goals

Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Prediction

Based on recent trends, the prediction for Newcastle United vs. Manchester City is a Same Game Parlay: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.


Truthfully, I think this bet comes down to whether Newcastle United can find the back of the net against City’s defense. 

Currently, Newcastle’s defense is a complete mess, and they’ll play this match without Joelinton, a very important ball-stopper in the midfield. 

Over their last three league games – granted, two of which came on the road – they’ve surrendered 10.5 non-penalty expected goals, including 5.5 to Liverpool. 

Just in their last home game, Newcastle surrendered 3.5 expected goals to Nottingham Forest. For reference, they allowed only 6.8 expected goals in their previous nine home matches. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against Manchester City, who will play without Erling Haaland but have plenty of other attacking options to notch at least two goals. 

At the same time, Manchester City’s defense has struggled on the road against good competition. 

In a trip to Aston Villa, they allowed 2.3 expected goals. At Chelsea, they surrendered 2.9 expected goals. 

For all of Newcastle’s recent issues, their attack has looked okay. In their trip to Anfield, they created 1.4 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Additionally, they’ve yet to fail to score at home this season and have generated at least one expected goal in every home match dating back to the beginning of last season. 

Further, goals have featured prominently in matches this season that see the home team close as an underdog. 

To date, such games are 40-26-1 to the over when the total is between 2.5 and three goals. 

As a result, bank on these teams to showcase their offensive skill Saturday in Newcastle. Bet this same-game parlay at -110 or better.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.