- Newcastle is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- Three of Bournemouth's last four EPL matches have resulted in a draw.
- My Newcastle vs. Bournemouth prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
After yet another result away from home, Bournemouth make the trip from London for a Saturday clash with Newcastle.
The Cherries extended their unbeaten run to nine matches with a 2-2 draw at Chelsea on Tuesday. Currently, Andoni Iraola’s side sits seventh in the league table.
Newcastle’s midweek result is yet to be determined. On Wednesday, the Magpies are a heavy home favorite against Wolves and can reach fourth with a win.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Newcastle vs. Bournemouth Odds, Premier League
Newcastle vs. Bournemouth Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s defensive struggles against good teams along with their strong offense, my Newcastle vs. Bournemouth prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-185).
It is a lot of juice to lay, and I wouldn’t fault anyone who wants to take Over 3.5 Goals (+135). That said, there’s ample evidence for this match clearing the former total.
Bournemouth’s 11 road matches are seeing an average of 3.42 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Although the match finished 1-1 in the earlier meeting at Bournemouth, chances featured prominently.
Bournemouth and Newcastle combined for 3.93 expected goals and 3.77 post-shot xG. Newcastle rank particularly unlucky, scoring once off 1.7 xG and 2.65 post-shot xG.
Now they get a Bournemouth defense that has struggled away from home against good competition.
The Cherries have faced only four road matches against sides with a +0.5 xGDiff per 90 or higher.
In those four matches, they surrendered 1.95 xG per 90 and 2.98 post-shot xG per 90 with three of four opponents clearing three post-shot xG.
But their attack has simultaneously scored at least once in three of those four matches and has cleared one post-shot xG in all four.
History also likes this match clearing 2.5 goals at minimum.
Since last season, matches featuring a total set at 2.5 are 48-12 (80%) to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s goals average falls between 1.3 and 2.1
- The road team’s previous game margin is +0 or +1
When the road team’s goals average falls between 1.5 and 1.9, such matches are 30-2 to the over.
Pair that with the fact both teams are playing on short rest, and goals should be expected on Saturday at St. James’ Park.
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