- Newcastle United is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Brighton & Hove Albion.
- Newcastle United has won each of its last five EPL home matches following a draw.
- Depending on Newcastle’s lineup, my prediction is the Newcastle moneyline.
Newcastle United looks for another positive result on extended rest with a home fixture against Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday.
Before the international break, Newcastle played to a 0-0 road draw against Everton. Now they return home, where they’re 2-1-0 (W-D-L) this season.
As for Brighton, the Seagulls came storming back from a 2-0 home deficit against Tottenham to win 3-2 before the break. Currently, Fabian Huerzler’s side sits sixth in the table.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Brighton prediction.
Premier League Odds: Newcastle vs. Brighton
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | -0.5 (-110) | 3.5 (+120) | +100 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | +0.5 (-130) | 3.5 (-165) | +250 |
| Draw | +275 |
Premier League Betting: Newcastle vs. Brighton Prediction
If Alexander Isak or Callum Wilson returns from injury on Saturday, my Newcastle vs. Brighton prediction is the Newcastle United Moneyline (+100).
These sides played to a 1-1 draw in the last meeting at St. James’ Park, but the hosts dominated proceedings.
Expected goals finished 2.2-1.4 in Newcastle’s favor with a 4-3 big scoring chances edge for Eddie Howe’s side.
Now they get Brighton in what’s historically a favorable spot under Eddie Howe.
Dating back to the start of the 2022-23 season, Newcastle has won seven straight and is unbeaten in eight with 13 or more days between games.
Irrespective of timing, Newcastle is 25-5-11 (W-D-L) at St. James’ Park since the beginning of 2022.
History also suggests the Magpies are in a favorable position to earn all three points.
Since 2012, favorites priced between -180 and +115 with either nine or 14 days between games are 107-53 (67%) SU, including 31-11 (74%) since the 2021 season.
Additionally, Brighton are dealing with key injury concerns that would severely impact their prospects of earning points.
Defenders Jan Paul van Hecke and Adam Webster are doubtful with midfielders Simon Adingra, Carlos Baleba, Solly March and James Milner all potential absentees.
If that entire group of players doesn’t appear and Newcastle return one of Isak or Wilson, I could see this price ballooning to a much higher number.
I’d play it at -150 or better if all the aforementioned players are out for Brighton and Newcastle return one or both of their strikers.
Newcastle Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 at Everton: 0-0, D
- Oct. 1 vs. Wimbledon: 1-0, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 28 vs. Manchester City: 1-1, D
- Sept. 21 at Fulham: 1-3, L
- Sept. 15 at Wolves: 2-1, W
Brighton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 6 vs. Tottenham: 3-2, W
- Sept. 28 at Chelsea: 2-4, L
- Sept. 22 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-2, D
- Sept. 18 vs. Wolves: 3-2, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 14 vs. Ipswich Town: 0-0, D
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