- Newcastle is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has won 12 of its last 13 EPL Wednesday night matches.
- My Newcastle vs. Liverpool prediction rests on the status of Alexander Isak.
The marquee fixture of Wednesday’s Premier League slate sees league leaders Liverpool travel to battle Newcastle United.
Arne Slot’s side captured an impressive 2-0 win over Manchester City on Sunday. That win gives Liverpool, which has dropped points only twice, a nine-point lead at the top.
Newcastle nearly pulled off a shocking win at Crystal Palace, despite taking only a single shot. However, a late Palace equalizer resigned Eddie Howe’s side to one point.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Liverpool prediction.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -0.5 (-135) | 2.5 (-185) | -120 |
| Newcastle United | +0.5 (-105) | 2.5 (+130) | +290 |
| Draw | +300 |
Newcastle vs. Liverpool Prediction
If Alexander Isak fails in the Starting XI for Newcastle United on Wednesday, my Newcastle United vs. Liverpool prediction is the Liverpool Moneyline (-120).
I’m caught between two minds with this prediction.
On one hand, Newcastle have played very well as home dogs this year. Howe’s side played to a 1-1 draw against Manchester City and captured a 1-0 home win over Arsenal.
But Newcastle United closed at this exact price against Arsenal.
Entering Matchday 14, Liverpool rate out as superior to Arsenal. The Reds own a +13 non-penalty expected goal differential whereas Arsenal sits at +7.2.
There’s also the potential Newcastle operates without Isak, the only Newcastle player with more than 2.5 non-penalty xG this year.
Over the weekend, Newcastle managed only 0.02 xG at Crystal Palace with zero shots on target and an own goal.
Now they have to face a Liverpool defense that ranks first in non-penalty xGA and second in post-shot expected goals against, per fbref.com.
There’s also the chance Liverpool return goalkeeper Alisson Becker to the lineup on Wednesday, upgrading their goaltending situation.
Plus, Liverpool has dominated Newcastle United in recent head-to-head fixtures.
Not since April 2021 has Newcastle earned points against Liverpool, which created 5.5 xG in the last meeting at Anfield.
At St. James’ Park last fall, the Reds fell behind 1-0 and played a man down for the final hour. Yet, they still managed a 1.75-1.35 post-shot xG edge, per fotmob.com.
Add in Liverpool own a +1.11 xG per 90 edge over Newcastle, without adjusting for schedule strength, and it’s the visitors or nothing for me on Wednesday.
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