- Nottingham Forest is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa has won six of its last seven EPL Saturday away matches.
- My Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa prediction is the Forest Spread.
A clash of two strong EPL starters takes place Saturday at the City Ground as Nottingham Forest hosts Aston Villa.
Forest sits fifth in the league table and has captured two wins in their previous three matches. Dating back to October 21, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side is 5-0-3 (W-D-L).
Villa produced a pair of bounceback results in the league recently to end a five-match winless run. Wins over Brentford and Southampton at home leave Unai Emery’s side sixth.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | +0.5 (-210) | 2.5 (-135) | +165 |
| Nottingham Forest | -0.5 (+140) | 2.5 (-105) | +155 |
| Draw | +240 |
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Based on Villa’s weak metrics away from home and Forests’ rest advantage, my Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa prediction is Nottingham Forest Draw, No Bet (-125).
The schedule forces a short rest spot for Aston Villa away from home after capturing an undeserved win in Germany.
They’ll also likely play without talisman Ollie Watkins at Forest, which has avoided defeat in five of seven at home this season.
However, this game provides a chance to sell Aston Villa away from home.
Villa owns the fourth-best expected goal differential per 90 minutes at Villa Park. Away from home, Emery’s side falls to 12th.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, Emery guided Villa to only 11 outright wins in 26 road matches.
Without Watkins, Villa likely has a hard time breaking down a strong Forest defense.
Santo’s side ranks third in expected goals against per 90 minutes and fourth in non-penalty xGA per 90 minutes.
Perhaps it’s an oversimplification, but Forest has avoided defeat in all but one of 10 matches in which they’ve allowed one or fewer goals.
Lastly, a bit of betting calculus for this contest.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are heavily juiced to -160 and -135, respectively.
However, both team totals are heavily juiced to under 1.5 goals. Forest under 1.5 goals is -165, while Villa under 1.5 goals is -175.
When that happens, I’ll trust the home team to avoid defeat. Add in the rest edge for Forest, and I’ll back them to continue their strong form.
