- Nottingham Forest is a 0.0-goal home favorite against Brighton.
- Nottingham Forest has only one loss this year when conceding two or fewer goals.
- My Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton prediction is for Forest to avoid defeat.
After a blowout road loss against Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest returns home for a clash with Brighton.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side fell 5-0 to Bournemouth for only their fifth defeat of the league season. Despite that defeat, Forest still sit third in the league table.
Brighton fell 1-0 as home favorites to Everton on Matchday 23, ending a six-match unbeaten run. As it stands, Brighton sits ninth in the league despite only five defeats.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton prediction.
Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on Brighton’s inconsistent offensive record and Forest’s strong record off a bad road loss, my Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton prediction is Forest Draw, No Bet (-135).
For Brighton to win this game, they’ll need to slip three past a Forest defense third in non-penalty expected goals against and fourth in post-shot xGA, per fbref.com.
Oddsmakers are saying that’s an unlikely outcome, with Brighton under 2.5 goals listed at -700.
This season, Forest is unbeaten when conceding two or fewer goals. Perhaps that’s an oversimplification, but Santo’s side also excels off a bad road defeat.
Forest recorded a -3 goal differential twice since November 23. In each of the next two matches, they came back to earn six points from six.
The limited sample leaves something to be desired, but under no circumstances are these sides equal.
Forest owns a +0.12 expected goal differential per 90, including a +0.31 at home.
There is some concern that Brighton’s post-shot xGDiff varies vastly from their xGDiff. Through 23 matches, the Seagulls own a -0.07 xGDiff compared to a +0.31 post-shot xGDiff.
But the last head-to-head meeting saw Forest win the match 1.68-1.09 on post-shot xG with some luck from a Chris Wood penalty kick.
Brighton also struggles to earn results away from home against strong defenses.
Sample three trips to teams fifth or better in post-shot xG defense, and bettors will find Brighton is 0-1-2 (W-D-L).
Even if you only sample a trip to Fulham – 10th in post-shot xGF, fourth in post-shot xGA – bettors will find Brighton lost 3-1 with a -0.7 post-shot xGDiff.
Forest has also dropped all three points only twice at home this season, with one failure coming when Morgan Gibbs-White missed the match.
This year, Forest are 11-5-3 (W-D-L) when Gibbs-White starts, with two of three losses coming on the road. As a result, buy low on Forest to avoid defeat at home.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Premier League Against the Spread Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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