- Nottingham Forest is predicted to be a -0.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- Fulham has won three of the previous four against Nottingham Forest.
- I predict Fulham will earn points as road underdogs against Forest.
Nottingham Forest will look to continue their unbeaten run to start the season as home favorites to Fulham on Saturday.
The Tricky Trees parlayed their 1-0 win at Liverpool on Matchday 3 with a 2-2 draw at Brighton last week. However, they lost Morgan Gibbs-White to a red card in the process last weekend.
Fulham have also enjoyed a strong start to the season. After losing 1-0 to Manchester United, they’ve produced an unbeaten run in four straight matches.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham prediction.
Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham Odds, Premier League
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +138
- Fulham Moneyline: +200
- Draw Moneyline: +230
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-110/-130)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-135), No (-105)
Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham Prediction: Game Spread
My Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham prediction is the Fulham Spread (+0.5, -175).
I recognize this is a lot of juice to lay on a team that lost 3-1 in the last head-to-head meeting, but bettors should consider the circumstances around that game.
Both teams played the match on short rest: The Tuesday game came after both teams played on Saturday.
However, it was Fulham’s second consecutive road game, while Forest played two straight at home.
The 3-1 scoreline proved unsurprising because of that timeline, but Fulham actually ran unlucky in that fixture.
Expected goals finished 1.53 to 1.5 in favor of Forest, with post-shot expected goals giving a 1.4 to 0.6 edge for Forest.
On Saturday, they’ll be without Morgan Gibbs-White, a vital creator for Forest. Additionally, Fulham have quietly kept three straight opponents under one post-shot xG.
When these teams met at Craven Cottage, Gibbs-White didn’t appear until halftime. Albeit under a different manager, Forest lost the psxG battle 3.4 to 0.04!
Fulham also matches a historically profitable system in this match.
Since 2012, half-goal road underdogs in games 2-10 with six or seven days between games are 71% ATS when the opponent closed an underdog in their previous game.
When those teams lost the previous head-to-head meeting by two or more goals: 6-0 ATS.
That system is also 22-6 ATS since the 2020-21 EPL season, including 7-1 when the dog lost the last head-to-head meeting.
Take Fulham to, at minimum, continue their run of results in this spot.
Nottingham Forest Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 22 at Brighton: 2-2, D
- Sept. 14 at Liverpool: 1-0, W
- Aug. 31 vs. Wolves: 1-1, D
- Aug. 28 vs. Newcastle: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Newcastle Advance)
- Aug. 24 at Southampton: 1-0, W
Fulham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 21 vs. Newcastle: 3-1, W
- Sept. 17 at Preston: 1-1, D (EFL Cup, Fulham Advance)
- Sept. 14 vs. West Ham: 1-1, D
- Aug. 31 at Ipswich: 1-1, D
- Aug. 27 at Birmingham: 2-0, W (EFL Cup)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Nottingham Forest odds and Fulham odds!
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