- Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool are all -190 or higher to qualify for the Champions League.
- Five teams range between +150 and +275, including Chelsea and Tottenham.
- I predict Newcastle United will qualify for the Champions League.
The 2024-25 Premier League season is fast approaching and Premier League Odds for the top-4 finishing position are live.
Premier League Odds, Top 4 Finish
Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are all -190 or higher to retain their spots. City is -1000, an implied probability of 90.9%, while Arsenal is -650, an implied probability of 86.7%.
Liverpool, under new manager Arne Slot, is -190 to keep their Champions League status. That price implies a probability of 65.5%.
From there, the market asks bettors which of Chelsea (+150), Newcastle United (+188), Manchester United (+200), Tottenham (+200) and Aston Villa (+275) will secure the fourth spot.
Premier League Prediction: Top 4 Finish
I predict that Newcastle United (+188) will earn the final Champions League position in 2024-25.
Perhaps the best result for this Newcastle team wasn’t one they produced.
A win for Manchester United in the FA Cup Final gave United a Europa League spot and pushed Chelsea into the Conference League. That leaves Newcastle out of Europe entirely.
The effects of Newcastle reaching the Champions League last season were quite noticeable from an injury standpoint.
Across the entire season, the Magpies lost 1,950 days to injury (most in the EPL) with 41 separate injuries (T-3rd most).
For context, Newcastle’s 1,950 days lost to injury was the most in the Premier League by 189 days. The difference between second and sixth on that list was 179 days!
Both Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles remain out until January due to injuries.
However, Newcastle quietly added Lloyd Kelly from Bournemouth on a free transfer to bolster their backline, the biggest issue for Newcastle last season.
In the 2022-23 season, Newcastle finished second in expected goals against. Last year, they finished 12th.
Most importantly, CEO Darren Eales noted Anthony Gordan, Bruno Guimares, Alexander Isak and Joelinton will all remain with Newcastle.
One final factor makes Newcastle a great preseason wager to qualify.
Of their 14 games against the Big Six and Aston Villa, they play five of the first seven at home.
That should give them an edge over their rivals, who are set to face a more congested schedule.
Once the calendar flips to 2025, there could be an opportunity to live bet teams like Chelsea or Tottenham, who I expect are the likeliest challengers.
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