- The Raiders are a 3-point home underdog against the Steelers.
- Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has seen 60% of road games finish under the total.
- My prediction for Raiders vs. Steelers is the game total under.
The Steelers and Raiders renew their rivalry on Sunday in Las Vegas with both teams looking for bounce-back wins.
Pittsburgh lost its second straight game in Week 5 on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys. That marked a second straight defeat for the Steelers.
Las Vegas fell to Denver 34-18 in Week 5. That result has seen the Raiders lose every other game this season.
Bet on Raiders vs. Steelers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 6 Odds: Raiders vs. Steelers
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | -3 (-115) | 36.5 (-110) | -165 |
| Raiders | +3 (-105) | 36.5 (-110) | +140 |
Raiders vs. Steelers Prediction
Based on Las Vegas’ defensive metrics and their inability to pass without Davante Adams, I predict Raiders vs. Chargers will stay Under 36.5 Points (-110).
Since losing Adams, the Raiders have struggled offensively. In their last two games, they’re 25th in offensive success rate and 27th in EPA per play.
Most concerning are their passing metrics. Here’s the breakdown:
- With Adams: 10th in success rate, 18th in EPA/play
- Without Adams: 21st in success rate, 27th in EPA/play
If there’s a way to exploit Pittsburgh’s defense, it’s through the air. The Steelers rank 16th in pass EPA per play and 17th in passing success rate allowed.
Comparatively, Pittsburgh is fourth and fifth in rush EPA per play and rush success rate allowed.
At the same time, I question if the Steelers can exploit the Raiders’ defensive weakness.
Las Vegas sits 28th in rush EPA per play allowed vs. 14th in passing EPA per play allowed.
Interestingly, the Steelers are getting good run blocking and are doing nothing with it. Pittsburgh ranks ninth in run block win rate, yet it sits 23rd in rush EPA per play.
Plus, Las Vegas ranks eighth in run-stop win rate and third in PFF’s rush defense rankings. Accordingly, I question how the Steelers move the ball consistently.
This game also matches two historically profitable systems.
Since 2019, unders between 32.5 and 39 are 32-13-1 (71%) to the under when the home team is the underdog.
When the home team saw its last game go over the total, the under is 14-1 in those situations, including 11-0 when its last game went over by at least 3.5 points.
Plus, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 60% to the under in conference road games for his career.
When the opponent is coming off an over, Tomlin is 30-12-1 (71%) to the under.
Raiders vs. Steelers: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 81% | 87% | 60% | 83% |
| Raiders | 19% | 13% | 40% | 17% |
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