- Sheffield United is a +1.5-goal underdog against Tottenham.
- Tottenham earned a 2-1 home win in the reverse fixture.
- Why bettors should expect goals to flow on Sunday at Bramall Lane.
In what’s generally a meaningless fixture on Sunday at Bramall Lane, Sheffield United close out their Premier League campaign against Tottenham.
Following their loss to Manchester City on Tuesday, Tottenham need only a point at Sheffield or dropped points from Newcastle United and Chelsea to secure Europa League football.
As for Sheffield, they’ve already received their relegation fate and are locked into the 20th spot in the Premier League table.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Sheffield United vs. Tottenham
- Sheffield United Moneyline: +625
- Tottenham Moneyline: -300
- Draw Moneyline: +500
- Over/Under: 4.5 Goals (+125/-175)
Premier League Prediction – Sheffield United vs. Tottenham
Total Over 4.5 Goals (+125)
This game reminds me of Southampton vs. Liverpool on the final day last season.
Southampton had already been relegated and were playing a meaningless home game. As for Liverpool, they were locked into a Europa League spot.
What ensued was nothing short of pure chaos, with three goals in the first 20 minutes. Ultimately, the game finished 4-4 with 6.3 combined post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
Bettors should expect a similar outcome in this game, which matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012-13, games featuring home underdogs that saw their last game go under the total by at least two goals are 50-25-1 to the over, assuming the visitors average at least 1.4 goals.
Although that system assumes the total is 2.5, 3 or 3.5, I’m willing to take a shot in a game where teams have generally played high-event matches.
In Sheffield’s last four home games, they’ve created 1.98 expected goals per 90 minutes and have created at least two expected goals in two straight.
Plus, in 13 matches with Ben Brereton Diaz in the lineup, Sheffield have scored at least twice in six games.
Sample seven games against teams 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goal differential, and bettors will find Sheffield has created 1.54 expected goals per 90 minutes.
The problem? They’ve looked quite bad against competent attacks.
Sheffield have played 13 games against sides creating at least 1.6 npxG per 90 minutes this season. All but four have created more than two expected goals, with five clearing 2.5.
Plus, six of those teams have scored at least three goals on Sheffield with five scoring at least five goals.
Tottenham have created at least two post-shot expected goals in three straight games and created two post-shot xG in the reverse fixture.
As a result, take the over on Sunday.
Sheffield United Form
May 11 at Everton: 0-1, L
May 4 vs. Nottingham Forest: 1-3, L
April 27 at Newcastle United: 1-5, L
April 24 at Manchester United: 2-4, L
April 20 vs. Burnley: 1-4, L
Tottenham Form
May 14 vs. Man City: 0-2, L
May 11 vs. Burnley: 2-1, W
May 5 at Liverpool: 2-4, L
May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L
April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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