- Southampton is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Brentford.
- Southampton has won only one of its last 23 EPL matches following a loss.
- My Southampton vs. Brentford prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Still searching for its first result under Ivan Juric, Southampton return home to host Brentford.
The Saints took a 1-0 lead at Crystal Palace on Sunday. However, two unanswered goals resigned Juric to a second defeat in two matches.
Brentford’s Matchday 19 result is still to be determined. The Bees host Arsenal on Wednesday and will look to earn their first road win on Saturday at St. Mary’s Stadium.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Brentford prediction.
Southampton vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League
Southampton vs. Brentford Prediction
Based on Southampton’s improved attacking metrics and Brentford’s offensive record against bad teams, my Southampton vs. Brentford prediction is a SGP: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-135).
Although it’s a lot of juice to lay in this spot, this match has the makings of a high-scoring fixture.
Brentford won the last meeting 3-1, creating 3.16 post-shot xG and six big scoring chances.
While some may point to Brentford’s weak attacking record away from home – 18th in road expected goals – this is a major buy-low spot.
Saturday’s match marks the first time all season Brentford will close a road favorite, rendering that offensive record moot for the handicap.
Southampton conceded 2.03 xG and 2.35 post-shot xG at Palace, a markedly worse attack than Brentford. That marked the second straight game they allowed at least 1.8 xG.
But this is simultaneously a horrific spot for Brentford.
Not only do they face a Wednesday-Saturday schedule, but they face it without a number of key defenders.
Manager Thomas Frank currently has eight first-team players injured, six of which are defenders.
The short rest factor should also allow chances for the Southampton attack, which has improved under Juric.
Southampton created 1.4 xG at home against West Ham and managed 1.57 xG in the previous meeting against Brentford.
History also likes this match clearing 2.5 goals.
Since last season, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 48-18 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The home team’s previous game margin falls between -3 and -1
- The away team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.3 and 2.5
When the road team’s average falls between 1.3 and 1.9: 32-11 to the over. As a result, expect goals on Saturday at St. Mary’s.
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