- Tottenham is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has won each of its last eight EPL Sunday matches as a favorite.
- My Tottenham vs. Liverpool prediction focuses on an alternate total.
The marquee Premier League fixture of Matchday 17 sees Liverpool travel to Tottenham for a Big Six clash.
The Reds dropped points at Anfield last weekend in a 2-2 draw with Fulham. However, Liverpool retained their overall lead for the title after Arsenal drew Everton.
Tottenham captured a convincing 5-0 road win over Southampton on Matchday 17. That put Tottenham 10th in the league table and ended a three-match league winless run.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs. Liverpool prediction.
Tottenham vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -0.5 (-145) | 3.5 (-135) | -130 |
| Tottenham | +0.5 (+100) | 3.5 (+100) | +290 |
| Draw | +333 |
Tottenham vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s injuries in defense and the short week for both sides, my Tottenham vs. Liverpool prediction is Over 4.5 Goals (+165).
Rather than laying -135 on over 3.5 goals, I’ll take the historical precedent between these teams and take a bigger number on over 4.5.
Either way, I don’t see how this match is anything but a pure up-and-down basketball match.
When these sides last met, the match finished 4-2 with 4.61 combined expected goals, 19 combined shots on target for 5.28 post-shot xG and seven big scoring chances.
The even bigger worry, from Tottenham’s standpoint, is that match featured a fully healthy defense.
On Sunday, they’ll play without Micky Van De Ven, Christian Romero and Guglielmo Vicario. They’ll also potentially operate without Destiny Udogie at left back.
If all those players fail to feature, I question how Tottenham defends a Liverpool side that created 3.4 xG in the last meeting.
It’s also a short week for Tottenham, who plays a League Cup match on Thursday.
But Liverpool’s defense is beginning to fall off since Ibrahima Konate sustained his injury.
Even if you throw out the match against Fulham, which involved a Liverpool red card, their most recent road match proved quite eventful.
The Reds played to a 3-3 road draw against Newcastle United. That match, their first trip without Konate, saw 4.1 xG, 5.97 post-shot xG and eight big chances.
It’s also a short week for Liverpool, facing their second straight road match after a Wednesday League Cup fixture against Southampton.
Spurs recently excelled as home dogs against Chelsea, creating 2.9 xG and 2.03 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
As a result, expect chances to flow for Tottenham’s attack. As a result, it’s goals or nothing for me on Sunday.
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