West Ham Prediction: 2024 EPL Betting Preview

Fortunes turned for West Ham in 2023-24. 

After winning the Europa Conference League, then manager David Moyes’ side jumped from 14th to ninth and reached the quarterfinals of the Europa League. 

Moyes departed at the end of the season and was replaced by former Wolves boss Julen Lopetegui, who takes over a club with no European football this season. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, West Ham odds and my betting predictions for West Ham’s campaign. 

West Ham Futures Odds

• League Winner: +20000
• Top-4 Finish: +1600
• Relegation Odds: +1600
• Top Goalscorer: Jarrod Bowen (+6600)

West Ham Notable Permanent Additions

• Luis Guilherme, Midfielder (Palmeiras)
• Max Kilman, Defender (Wolves)
• Crysencio Summerville, Winger (Leeds United)
• Niclas Fullkrug, Striker (Borussia Dortmund)

West Ham Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season

I predict West Ham United will fall out of the Premier League top half this season. 

This team operated on a knife’s edge last season when it came to offensive chance creation. 

While they weren’t very good to begin with — 13th in expected goals, 15th in non-penalty expected goals — the underlying data is much more concerning. 

Essentially, West Ham banked on opponents delivering high-quality scoring chances to them. 

The Hammers ranked 16th in shots per 90 minutes and shots on target per 90 minutes. They also ranked 18th in attacking third touches and penalty box touches. 

However, they ranked third in goals per shot on target, fifth in average shot distance and eighth in goal-creating actions, per fbref.com. 

But the chief concern for this team is an inability to defend. 

Only Sheffield United and Luton Town conceded more expected goals than West Ham last season. 

While some of that can be attributed to West Ham opponents receiving the most penalty kicks, they still ranked fifth-worst in non-penalty expected goals against. 

Much like their offensive metrics, West Ham’s defensive trends are equally concerning. 

They ranked third-worst in shots on target per 90 and fourth-worst in shots allowed per 90, both of which exclude penalty kicks. 

But they lucked out severely by sitting fifth in goals allowed per shot on target. 

Additionally, they ranked third-worst in attacking third touches and second-worst in attacking penalty area touches. 

Those metrics simply don’t add up to me. 

For those reasons, I’m happy to fade a West Ham team that overperformed their expected goal differential by five goals and take them to finish outside the top half.