- West Ham is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Fulham.
- Five of Fulham's last six EPL matches have resulted in a draw.
- My West Ham vs. Fulham prediction focuses on the pregame total.
West Ham’s first league match under new manager Graham Potter sees the Hammers host Fulham.
Two straight blowout losses against Liverpool and Man City doomed Julen Lopetegui’s job security. As it stands, West Ham currently sits 14th in the league table.
Fulham finds itself on an eight-match unbeaten run, but only two of those results are wins. Most recently, Marco Silva’s side drew 2-2 against Ipswich and sits ninth in the table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs. Fulham prediction.
West Ham vs. Fulham Odds, Premier League
West Ham vs. Fulham Prediction
Based on West Ham’s poor defensive record and West Ham’s potential offensive improvement, my West Ham vs. Fulham prediction is Over 2.5 Goals (-145).
Wait for lineups to come out before making this bet.
Recently, Marco Silva has deployed a back five in defense. If that happens again, the confidence in this bet wanes a touch.
That said, West Ham’s defense is completely broken right now.
The Hammers rank 17th in expected goals against, non-penalty expected goals against and post-shot xGA, per fbref.com.
Only the three promoted teams rate out worse than West Ham in those three categories.
Although West Ham surrendered only 0.8 post-shot xG in the reverse fixture against Fulham, it came with extended rest. Now, they’ll face the Cottagers with only three days between games.
That should spell trouble for West Ham, which recently closed around this number as home dogs to Brighton. In that match, they surrendered 2.2 post-shot xG.
The Hammers also struggled against Fulham prior to the most recent meeting. In two prior games, they allowed 3.88 and 4.02 post-shot xG.
At the same time, West Ham’s attack should receive a new manager bounce under Potter.
Plus, in spite of closing an underdog at home all but three times this year, West Ham have scored at least once in all but three home matches.
History also likes this match clearing 2.5 goals.
Since last season, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals with a home team off a loss are 51-18 to the over, assuming the road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.3 and 2.3.
When those home teams are off a loss by three or more goals: 18-2 to the over and 28-7 since the 2022-23 EPL season.
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