- West Ham is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- West Ham have lost three of five matches as home underdogs this season.
- My West Ham vs. Liverpool prediction focuses on the Liverpool team total.
Liverpool’s second match in four days sees the Reds travel to London for a meeting with West Ham.
Arne Slot’s slide stumbled out of the gates against Leicester City, trailing 1-0 inside 15 minutes. However, the league leaders came from behind and secured a 3-1 win over the Foxes.
The Hammers used a strong second half to capture a 1-0 road win over Southampton. For Julen Lopetegui, that marks a fourth straight result in the league.
Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs. Liverpool prediction.
West Ham vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
West Ham vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on West Ham’s weak defensive record as a home underdog and Liverpool’s strong attack, my West Ham vs. Liverpool prediction is Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals (+115).
Liverpool has failed to score two goals only twice this season. While they’ve cleared this number only five times, Sunday’s matchup represents an extremely favorable one.
West Ham has closed a market underdog at home five times this season. Four of those teams scored at least twice, with three notching at least three tallies.
Sample only West Ham’s home match against Chelsea – the side closest to Liverpool, the league leaders in post-shot xG – and the Hammers produced a lackluster result.
Chelsea notched three goals inside of the first 50 minutes, including two goals inside of halftime.
For the entire match, West Ham surrendered three goals off 2.2 expected and 2.7 post-shot expected, per fbref.com.
West Ham’s two most recent matches as home dogs saw them surrender 2.2 post-shot xG to Brighton and 3.7 post-shot xG to Arsenal.
Albeit at home, Liverpool slipped five goals past West Ham in a League Cup match earlier this season and created 3.32 post-shot xG.
While two of those goals came after a West Ham red card, it still represents a major mismatch for the West Ham defense.
Plus, Liverpool managed six goals in a recent trip to Tottenham, which sits only a spot below West Ham in post-shot xG allowed.
As a result, take the plus money and grab the Reds to run rampant on Sunday at the London Stadium.
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