- Wolves is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Ipswich Town.
- Wolves has won four straight EPL home matches against promoted teams.
- My Wolves vs. Ipswich Town prediction is for Ipswich to cover the spread.
It’s a relegation six-pointer on Saturday at Molineux as Wolves hope to end a poor run of form against Ipswich Town.
Wolves, despite winning the expected goals battle, fell 2-1 at West Ham United on Monday. It marks the third straight loss for Gary O’Neil’s side after picking up two consecutive wins.
Ipswich are ahead of Wolves in the table solely on goal differential. The Tractor Boys sit on nine points in the top flight and have lost three matches in a row.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs. Ipswich Town prediction.
Wolves vs. Ipswich Town Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | +0.5 (-115) | 2.5 (-145) | +280 |
| Wolves | -0.5 (-125) | 2.5 (+105) | -115 |
| Draw | +280 |
Wolves vs. Ipswich Town Prediction
Based on Ipswich Town’s familiarity playing as a market underdog and Wolves’ injury absentees, my Wolves vs. Ipswich Town prediction is Ipswich Town +0.5 (-115).
There’s nothing like backing a team with the worst road expected goal differential in the Premier League.
But Ipswich Town’s schedule away from home to begin the season is nothing short of brutal.
Kieran McKenna has led his side into road fixtures against Man City, Brighton, Southampton, West Ham, Brentford, Tottenham and Forest.
Yikes.
But it should be noted that Ipswich have earned points in three of those seven matches, including a deserved win at Tottenham a few weeks ago.
Sample their trip to Southampton, the side closest in quality to Wolves, and bettors will find Ipswich earned a 1-1 road draw with a 3.05-1.23 edge on post-shot expected goals.
There also isn’t this big a gap between these teams based on their underlying metrics.
Wolves own a -0.7 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, while Ipswich sit on -1.16 for the season.
However, Ipswich have played a harder schedule to date, so I’d estimate the gap between these teams is closer.
History also likes this spot to back Ipswich Town earning points.
Since 2012, half-goal underdogs against a previous road underdog are 66% ATS, assuming two factors:
- The dog’s game number falls between 3 and 20
- The dog closed an underdog in their previous game
When the favorite has a win percentage under 20%, those dogs improve to 30-13 ATS (71%).
As a result, I’ll pay a short price to back a team with experience as an underdog against a flawed favorite.
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