- Wolves is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Nottingham Forest.
- Nottingham Forest has won each of its last five EPL matches.
- My Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is the Forest Moneyline.
To close out EPL Matchday 20, Nuno Espirito Santo takes Nottingham Forest to face former club Wolves.
Both teams earned positive results on Matchday 19. Forest, with a 2-0 win over Everton, moved second in the league table, eight points adrift of league leaders Liverpool.
Wolves captured a 2-2 road draw against Tottenham, their third straight result under new manager Vitor Pereira. Still, Wolves sit only a point outside the relegation zone.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest Odds, Premier League
Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
Based on Wolves’ fortunate form recently and Forest’s dominance in the last meeting, my Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is the Forest Moneyline (+125).
Wolves won’t feature Matheus Cunha on Monday, dealing a big blow to their attack against one of the league’s best defenses. Entering Monday, Forest ranks second in post-shot xG allowed.
Although Wolves picked up a point in their trip to Forest, the underlying metrics suggest that was a lucky result.
Forest posted a 1.73-0.58 edge on post-shot xG in their home meeting with Wolves. Over the last two meetings, the Tricky Trees own a +0.95 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Now, they get a Wolves side that has experienced some fortunate results of late.
They beat Leicester City, a bad team, 3-0. However, post-shot xG rated the match 0.8-0.53 in favor of Leicester.
Then Wolves beat Manchester United, who saw a player sent off five minutes into the second half. Both Wolves goals came after that action.
Finally, Pereira’s side played a wounded Tottenham side with only one recognized central defender, rendering their 2-2 draw unsurprising.
Without Cunha, Wolves lose a player who has accounted for 9.6 non-penalty xG plus expected assists this season. That figure accounts for 26.5% of Wolves’ entire team total this season.
Plus, Forest finds themselves in a historically profitable spot.
Half-goal favorites off a two-goal win as underdogs at -124 or shorter are 25-11 since 2012, including 14-3 since 2020.
Even when they’re facing a dog off a result, they’re still 12-5 SU since 2012, including 8-0 since 2020.
As a result, take the plus money on Forest and back them to win their sixth straight league game.
