- Wolves is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Southampton.
- Southampton has lost each of its last eight EPL away matches.
- My Wolves vs. Southampton prediction is the Southampton moneyline.
A potential relegation six-pointer takes place on Saturday at Molineux, with Wolves hosting Southampton.
Each side earned a result in their last match. However, it’s not enough to move both from the relegation zone into safety.
Wolves played to a 2-2 home draw against Crystal Palace, while Southampton earned a 1-0 home win over Everton.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Wolves vs. Southampton prediction.
Premier League Odds: Wolves vs. Southampton
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | +0.5 (-120) | 2.5 (-160) | +270 |
| Wolves | -0.5 (-115) | 2.5 (+115) | -105 |
| Draw | +270 |
Premier League Betting: Wolves vs. Southampton Prediction
Based on Wolves’ poor defensive record and Southampton’s positive defensive record vs. Everton, my Wolves vs. Southampton prediction is the Southampton Moneyline (+270).
Both teams’ results on Matchday 10 were objectively lucky. However, Wolves’ 2-2 draw was even luckier than Southampton’s 1-0 win over Everton.
Gary O’Neil’s side lost the expected goals battle 2.5-1.5 and the post-shot expected goals battle 2.9-1.7, per fotmob.com.
Southampton lost the xG battle 1.6-0.7 and the big scoring chances battle 3-1. However, post-shot expected goals only finished 0.85-0.81 in Everton’s favor.
Right now, there’s simply not as big a gap between these teams as these odds suggest.
Plus, it’s worth noting Southampton have opened the scoring in four straight league games whereas Wolves are constantly having to come from behind.
That record gives me enough confidence to back Southampton, which fits the historical profile of a dog that wins outright in this spot.
Since 2012, underdogs priced between +203 and +961 in August or November-January are 33.5% SU, assuming three factors:
- The dog’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting fell between -3 and -1
- The favorite’s previous game margin is +0 or +1
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +2
Over the last three seasons, those underdogs are 12-13 SU for a 113% return on investment, including 6-2 SU at +330 or shorter.
As a result, take a small piece of the Southampton moneyline on Saturday.
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