- The Cubs are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-150) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 21-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 27-22 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 6.5 -110 | +125 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +150 | U 6.5 -110 | -150 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 78.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+20.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 42 games (+17.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.90 Units / 109% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Matt Mervis | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Matt Mervis | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Mervis | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -135 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 43 games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 28 games (+3.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+5.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 28-22 against the Run Line (+3.9 Units / 6.25% ROI).
- 21-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -8.07% ROI
- 27-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 4.15% ROI
- 23-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -12.46% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 27-22 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 7.79% ROI).
- 22-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -9.9% ROI
- 26-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 2.96% ROI
- 22-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -12.52% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .591 (13-for-22) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .347 — first Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .602 (62 Total Bases / 103 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — first Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (39/110) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has a strikeout rate of 55% (29 SO in 53 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (121/240) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (287/608) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (121/240) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (36/59) against Justin Steele in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 23-34 (.404) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .650.
The Reds are just 21-23 (.477) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Reds are just 15-27 (.357) after a home win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
The Reds are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .139.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 14-24 (.368) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Cubs are just 2-12 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Cubs are just 11-53 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have won just 17% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Reds are batting .413 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .211 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .279 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Cubs hitters have 23 strikeouts in 69 PA’s (33%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .480 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .310 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .343 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Reds pitchers have walked 794 of 8,167 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .308 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 6.57 (101.1 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 430 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 256 times this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
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