Reds vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 23

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 23, 2022, 10:22 AM
  • The Phillies (67-55) are -225 favorites vs the Reds (48-72)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (3-4), 4.11 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (8-5), 3.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Cincinnati Reds (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Reds vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 46-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 62-58 ATS.

Reds vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -115O 8 -110+180
Phillies -1.5 -105U 8 -110-225

Reds vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 67.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 36 of his last 46 games at home (+17.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+14.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+14.25 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 27 games at home (+12.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games (+11.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 92 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 games (+1.55 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 67 of their last 117 games (+14.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 55-63 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -9.5% ROI).

  • 46-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.75 Units / -10.89% ROI
  • 59-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -3.26% ROI
  • 57-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -6.17% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 62-58 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 2.03% ROI).

  • 66-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 2.26% ROI
  • 58-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.46% ROI
  • 56-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -5.68% ROI

Nick Lodolo has allowed an OBP of .400 (45 PA’s) against right-handed batters — tied for 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .297 — 10th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 46% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (29/63) with two-strikes — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has a first-pitch strike rate of 78% (40/51) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — 97th Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has walked 6 of 51 batters (12%) — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 10th Percentile.

Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.3 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (98 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 89.8

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (17/136) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (353/613) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has located his fastball inside 51% of the time (630/1,240) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Reds are just 36-7 (.837) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Reds are just 34-8 (.810) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Reds are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Reds are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Phillies are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Phillies are 51-2 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 33-26 (.559) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .281 (559 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Reds are batting just .220 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Reds hitters are slugging just .369 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Reds hitters are slugging just .336 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Phillies hitters are slugging .520 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Phillies hitters are slugging .527 at home this month (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .404.

Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Phillies have a winning percentage of 56% on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 64 double plays in 935 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,064 of 10,834 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (2,947 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Ankle, D10
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.