- Twins / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA
The Minnesota Twins (+150) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Saturday, March 2, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Clearwater, FL.
This season, the Twins are 2-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 4-1 ATS.
Twins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Twins | +150 |
| Phillies | -185 |
Twins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.85 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 83 away games (+11.39 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.41 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Twins are 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -27.5% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -1.39% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -21.15% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 12.07% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 4-1 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 37.21% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.69 Units / 28.26% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 18.59% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.22 Units / -21.71% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober threw his changeup 25% of the time (147/580) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Bailey Ober threw fastballs up 79% of the time (840/1,063) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 17% (32/185) against Bailey Ober in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober threw fastballs up 87% of the time (311/356) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mick Abel is making his MLB debut today.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Twins are just 13-27 (.325) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are just 29-44 (.397) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Twins were 31-10 (.756) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 69-7 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Twins hitters struck out 1,654 times in 6,219 PA’s (27%) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .166 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .790 (3,042 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Phillies hitters slugged .454 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers walked 99 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (4,019 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers won 40% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 95 double plays in 1,088 opportunities (9%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
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