- France (+130) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
- At the most recent Euro tournament, France drew Portugal 2-2.
- The same game parlay bettors should play on Friday.
Portugal will battle France on Friday in the Euro quarterfinals, a rematch of the 2016 European Championship Final.
France used a late goal against Belgium to reach the quarterfinals. It marks the third time in the last four major tournaments they’ve reached this point.
As for Portugal, they required penalty kicks to slip past Slovenia in the round of 16. Winners of the 2016 Euros, Portugal has failed to beat France in three straight meetings.
Here’s a look at the Euro 2024 odds and my prediction for Friday’s match.
France vs. Portugal Odds
- France Moneyline: +130
- Portugal Moneyline: +230
- Draw Moneyline: +210
- Total Goals: 2.5 (+138/-190)
- France vs. Portugal Both Teams to Score: Yes (+100), No (-145)
Who will score a goal in France vs. Portugal?
Based on current betting odds, Kylian Mbappe (+165) has the best chance to score a goal in this Euro matchup. Mbappe is followed on the odds board by Cristiano Ronaldo (+175), Olivier Giroud (+280) and Goncalo Ramos (+320).
France vs. Portugal: How many corner kicks will there be?
Based on the current line of 9.5 corner kicks for France vs. Portugal, I predict the UNDER will hit in this Euro matchup.
When these sides met at the 2021 European Championship, they combined for only a single corner kick. In the last four meetings between these nations, under 9.5 corners has hit three times.
France vs. Portugal Prediction: Same Game Parlay
My prediction for Friday’s Euro quarterfinal match is a Same Game Parlay: France Spread (+0.5) and Portugal under 5.5 corners (-115).
When these sides last met in the 2021 Euros group stage, France was far and away the better team.
Three of the four goals in that match came via penalty kicks. However, manager Didier Deschamps’ squad dominated from open play.
The non-penalty expected goals battle proved relatively close: 0.88 to 0.42 for France.
But the post-shot expected goals battle produced a wider gap.
France limited Portugal to 0.59 psxG from open play. Comparatively, the 2018 World Cup winners created 2.32 psxG from non-penalty situations, per fotmob.com.
Les Bleus also qualifies as a major positive regression candidate.
Through four matches, France has created six expected goals outside of penalty situations. However, they’ve managed a single goal.
On the other hand, I question how Portugal creates in this game given France has allowed only 1.8 expected goals in four matches.
Pair that with France’s strong head-to-head record against Portugal, and I’ll start this parlay with France to win or tie at the end of 90 minutes.
In terms of the corner handicap, Portugal failed to notch a single corner kick in their last match against France.
Sample the last three matches between these sides, and bettors will find Portugal finished under 5.5 corners twice.
France also limited Belgium to only two corners in the round of 16 and resigned the Netherlands to three.
In fact, only Austria has managed to clear this number against France.
With France likely dominating the ball, take the under on Portugal corners.
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