- Netherlands (-160) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
- These sides played matches in 2021 World Cup qualifying and each team earned a win.
- Why bettors should expect the Netherlands attack will dominate Turkey’s defense.
With a berth in the Euro semi-finals on the line, Netherlands faces off against upstart Turkey in the quarterfinals.
Netherlands experienced few issues in their round of 16 match against Romania. An early Cody Gakpo strike paired with two second-half tallies gave Ronald Koeman’s side a 3-0 win.
As for Turkey, they produced a 2-1 win over Austria in the absence of Hakan Calhanoglu to win outright as underdogs.
Here’s a look at the Euro 2024 odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Netherlands vs. Turkey Odds
- Netherlands Moneyline: +115
- Turkey Moneyline: +270
- Draw Moneyline: +210
- Total Goals: 2.5 (+138/-200)
- Netherlands vs. Turkey Both Teams to Score: Yes (-125), No (-115)
Who will score a goal in Netherlands vs. Turkey?
Based on current betting odds, Memphis Depay and Cody Gakpo (+138) are the most likely to score a goal in this Euro matchup.
Behind that Dutch duo are Wout Weghorst and Brian Brobbey (+170) and Joshua Kirkzee (+195).
Netherlands vs. Turkey: How many corner kicks will there be?
Based on the current line of 9.5 corner kicks for Netherlands vs. Turkey, I predict the OVER will hit in this Euro matchup.
Turkey have seen all four matches this tournament clear 9.5 corners. Netherlands matches have seen at least nine corners all but once, but have only reached 10 or more corners once.
Netherlands vs. Turkey Prediction: Netherlands Team Total
Based on Turkey’s flawed defense and recent head-to-head meetings, I predict the Netherlands will finish over 1.5 goals (-145).
Frankly, Turkey is lucky to find themselves in the quarterfinals.
They beat Austria 2-1 on Tuesday, but surrendered 3.16 expected goals and five big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Turkey also saw their goalkeeper save 122 goals over expected, including a final chance in stoppage time worth 0.94 psxG.
That’s going to put them in trouble against a powerful Netherlands attack.
Through four matches, Koeman’s side has cleared this number three times. The only failure? A group match against France, who has statistically proven the best tournament defense.
Turkey also enters Saturday’s match a major regression candidate defensively.
Through four matches, they’ve conceded six goals compared to eight expected goals.
But the biggest concern for this Turkish side is their poor historical record against the Dutch.
In two World Cup qualifying matches back in 2021, the Netherlands scored six goals and two goals against Turkey.
Even if you remove the second half in the Netherlands when the hosts played up a man, they still created 3.39 post-shot expected goals from open play across the three remaining halves.
Either way, this match sets up terribly for Turkey.
Take a lead like they did against Austria, and a better attack should tear them apart.
But if the Netherlands takes a lead and forces Turkey to play with the ball, expect a similar script to the latter’s game vs. Portugal where they allowed three goals off 1.9 expected.
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