- Spain (-450) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
- Spain and Georgia met in the qualification period with Spain winning both games.
- Why bettors should expect negative regression from the underdogs.
Searching for their fourth win in as many matches this tournament, Spain begins their knockout round with a match against upstart Georgia.
Amongst the pre-tournament favorites to win the tournament, Spain defeated Italy, Croatia and Albania in the group round without conceding a single goal.
As for Georgia, a shocking win over Portugal on the final day of the group stage sent them to the knockout round in their first major tournament.
Here’s a look at the Euro 2024 odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
Spain vs. Georgia Odds
- Spain Moneyline: -450
- Georgia Moneyline: +1350
- Draw Moneyline: +525
- Total Goals: 2.5 (-150/+110)
Spain vs. Georgia Prediction
Spain Spread (-1.5, -160)
Expect this match to get out of hand for Georgia in a hurry.
The story of their group round is notable, but the underlying metrics suggest they’re lucky to have reached this spot.
Across all three matches, Georgia posted a +0 goal differential against a -3.9 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Their offense has also proved overly reliant on penalties. Of the four goals they scored in the group, only two came from open play.
Excluding penalty kicks, Georgia managed a mere 2.6 expected goals across all three matches.
Now they’re running into a Spanish side with an exquisite defensive record.
Across their three group matches, Spain surrendered only 3.2 expected goals and 2.4 non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com.
On the other hand, this is a Georgia defense ripe for the taking.
They surrendered at least two expected goals in all three matches, including three expected goals to both Turkey and Hungary.
Even more concerning is that all eight of their expected goals came from open play.
Finally, Spain has previously demonstrated they can obliterate Georgia.
These sides played two head-to-head matches in Euro qualification.
Spain covered this number in both matches while posting a +2.68 expected goal differential per 90 and a +2.94 post-shot expected goal differential per 90.
As a result, lay the juice on Spain to win by at least two goals on Sunday.
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