UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

The UFC will be headlining its first event at The Sphere in Las Vegas on Sept. 14 with the UFC bantamweight title fight between defending champion Sean O’Malley and challenger and No. 1-ranked divisional contender Merab Dvalishvili for UFC 306.

It's the fight week we've all been waiting for! 🌞#UFC306 LIVE from @SphereVegas

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— UFC (@ufc) September 9, 2024

This will be O’Malley’s second title defense since becoming the division’s undisputed king. He’ll also be the betting favorite heading into the match with -140 UFC odds. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili is the +115 betting underdog in his first championship opportunity.

Sean O’Malley Recent Fight Results

O’Malley was a former alumnus of the Dana White Contender Series, where he had a walk-off knockout of Terrion Ware to earn a roster spot in the promotion. He made his octagon debut in March 2018 and won his first three fights before he suffered a first-round TKO loss from Marlon Vera in August 2020.

The Suga Show is BACK in action for #UFC306 🍬@SugaSeanMMA will fight for his second title defense this weekend at @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC

[ LIVE from @SphereVegas | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/QYpevgYxuS

— UFC (@ufc) September 9, 2024

Since that setback from Vera, he went on an undefeated six-fight streak. He defeated the likes of Thomas Almeida, Kris Moutinho, Raulian Paiva, Petr Yan, and Aljamain Sterling to become the undisputed UFC bantamweight champion. O’Malley also avenged his loss from Vera during their rematch at UFC 299 in March with a masterful unanimous decision win.

Merab Dvalishvili Recent Fight Results

Dvalishvili was a former ROC champion when he was signed by the UFC in 2017. However, the start of his UFC career wasn’t ideal because he sustained back-to-back losses to Frankie Saenz in December 2017 and Ricky Simon in April 2018. Following these losses, the Georgian athlete has never tasted defeat again and beat every opponent pitted against him.

The Machine is on the hunt this weekend! 👀@MerabDvalishvil is coming for the bantamweight title at #UFC306!

[ @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC LIVE from @SphereVegas | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/iuRxmVnT65

— UFC (@ufc) September 9, 2024

“The Machine” climbed up the division’s rankings by winning 10 straight fights and defeating notable names like John Dodson, Cody Stamann, Marlon Moraes, José Aldo, and Yan. His most recent victory was a lopsided unanimous decision against former UFC bantamweight king Henry Cejudo in February at UFC 298, setting the stage for this match with O’Malley.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Tale of the Tape

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between O’Malley and Dvalishvili reveals that the former will have significant advantages in physical attributes. He’s 5 inches taller, has 4 inches longer reach, and has 2 inches longer leg reach than the latter.

O’Malley is also four years younger (29), has a better record (18-1), and a higher finish rate (72%) than Dvalishvili, who is already 33 years old, has a record of 17 wins and four losses, and a finish rate of 24%.

In terms of fighting style, both have different approaches and fighting bases, with O’Malley being a striker who loves to use his boxing against his opponents. On the other hand, Dvalishvili is more of a grappler with a solid wrestling fighting base.

The key for O’Malley is to maximize his length against Dvalishvili, use his elite boxing skills to inflict damage, and potentially finish the challenger with his one-shot knockout power. He’s no stranger to fighting smaller opponents and has done a great job keeping them within his ideal range.

In contrast, Dvalishvili should immediately close the distance between himself and O’Malley to remove the threat of his boxing and maneuver his way into a grappling battle. This way, he can fully utilize his superior wrestling skills against the defending champion and potentially gas him out early into the fight.

In my opinion, Dvalishvili will learn from the mistake that his teammate, Sterling, committed against O’Malley and not rush into his range. I believe his wrestling pedigree will reign supreme in this match, and he’ll use it to rag-doll “Suga” throughout the match en route to a dominant and lopsided unanimous decision victory.

Official Prediction: Unanimous decision victory for Merab Dvalishvili.