UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

min read
Merab Dvalishvili, right, throws a kick at Henry Cejudo during their bantamweight bout at the UFC 298 mixed martial arts event.
(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Anatoly Pimentel @AnatolyPimentel Sep 10, 2024, 7:12 PM
  • Sean Oโ€™Malley defends his UFC bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 306.
  • Oโ€™Malley rides a six-fight win streak, while Dvalishvili has won 10 straight fights.
  • Oโ€™Malley is the -140 betting favorite, and Dvalishvili is the +115 betting underdog.

The UFC will be headlining its first event at The Sphere in Las Vegas on Sept. 14 with the UFC bantamweight title fight between defending champion Sean Oโ€™Malley and challenger and No. 1-ranked divisional contender Merab Dvalishvili for UFC 306.

This will be Oโ€™Malleyโ€™s second title defense since becoming the divisionโ€™s undisputed king. Heโ€™ll also be the betting favorite heading into the match with -140 UFC odds. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili is the +115 betting underdog in his first championship opportunity.

Sean Oโ€™Malley Recent Fight Results

Oโ€™Malley was a former alumnus of the Dana White Contender Series, where he had a walk-off knockout of Terrion Ware to earn a roster spot in the promotion. He made his octagon debut in March 2018 and won his first three fights before he suffered a first-round TKO loss from Marlon Vera in August 2020.

Since that setback from Vera, he went on an undefeated six-fight streak. He defeated the likes of Thomas Almeida, Kris Moutinho, Raulian Paiva, Petr Yan, and Aljamain Sterling to become the undisputed UFC bantamweight champion. Oโ€™Malley also avenged his loss from Vera during their rematch at UFC 299 in March with a masterful unanimous decision win.

Merab Dvalishvili Recent Fight Results

Dvalishvili was a former ROC champion when he was signed by the UFC in 2017. However, the start of his UFC career wasnโ€™t ideal because he sustained back-to-back losses to Frankie Saenz in December 2017 and Ricky Simon in April 2018. Following these losses, the Georgian athlete has never tasted defeat again and beat every opponent pitted against him.

โ€œThe Machineโ€ climbed up the divisionโ€™s rankings by winning 10 straight fights and defeating notable names like John Dodson, Cody Stamann, Marlon Moraes, Josรฉ Aldo, and Yan. His most recent victory was a lopsided unanimous decision against former UFC bantamweight king Henry Cejudo in February at UFC 298, setting the stage for this match with Oโ€™Malley.

Sean Oโ€™Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Tale of the Tape

Sean Oโ€™MalleyMerab Dvalishvili
Age2933
Height5โ€™11โ€5โ€™6โ€
Reach72 inches68 inches
Leg Reach40 inches38 inches
Record18-117-4
Fighting StyleStrikerFreestyle
Finishing Rate72%24%

Sean Oโ€™Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Oโ€™Malley and Dvalishvili reveals that the former will have significant advantages in physical attributes. Heโ€™s 5 inches taller, has 4 inches longer reach, and has 2 inches longer leg reach than the latter.

Oโ€™Malley is also four years younger (29), has a better record (18-1), and a higher finish rate (72%) than Dvalishvili, who is already 33 years old, has a record of 17 wins and four losses, and a finish rate of 24%.

In terms of fighting style, both have different approaches and fighting bases, with Oโ€™Malley being a striker who loves to use his boxing against his opponents. On the other hand, Dvalishvili is more of a grappler with a solid wrestling fighting base.

The key for Oโ€™Malley is to maximize his length against Dvalishvili, use his elite boxing skills to inflict damage, and potentially finish the challenger with his one-shot knockout power. Heโ€™s no stranger to fighting smaller opponents and has done a great job keeping them within his ideal range.

In contrast, Dvalishvili should immediately close the distance between himself and Oโ€™Malley to remove the threat of his boxing and maneuver his way into a grappling battle. This way, he can fully utilize his superior wrestling skills against the defending champion and potentially gas him out early into the fight.

In my opinion, Dvalishvili will learn from the mistake that his teammate, Sterling, committed against Oโ€™Malley and not rush into his range. I believe his wrestling pedigree will reign supreme in this match, and heโ€™ll use it to rag-doll โ€œSugaโ€ throughout the match en route to a dominant and lopsided unanimous decision victory.

Official Prediction: Unanimous decision victory for Merab Dvalishvili.

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About the Author

Anatoly Pimentel

Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.