UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

min read
Bobby Green punches Josh Thomson during the first round of a lightweight mixed martial arts bout at a UFC event.
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
Anatoly Pimentel @AnatolyPimentel Oct 26, 2023, 10:45 PM
  • A fierce UFC lightweight fight between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green headlines this weekend’s fight night.
  • Grant Dawson is the betting favorite at -400.
  • Bobby Green is the betting underdog at +300.

After a week of hiatus, the UFC is back inside the APEX Center for an intense lightweight showdown between the No. 10-ranked contender Grant Dawson (20-1-1) and veteran Bobby Green (30-14-1), which headlines the fight night. Dawson wants to keep his UFC record intact, while Green looks to crack a spot in the top 15 rankings.

Due to his place in the rankings, “KGD” comes in as the significant betting favorite in the UFC odds at -400 against the unranked “King,” who is tagged as the considerable betting underdog at +300. Another big factor coming into the fight is their form, with Dawson riding an eight-fight win streak while Green sporting a record of two wins, two losses, and one draw in his last five bouts.

Grant Dawson Recent Fight Results

Grant Dawson’s path to the UFC was through the Dana White’s Contender Series Season 1, Week 6, where he earned a promotional contract after submitting Adrian Diaz in the second round of their featherweight match. He officially made his UFC debut in March 2019 and defeated Julian Erosa unanimously. Since then, the American Top Team representative added three more victories in the featherweight division before moving up to the 155-pound weight class.

Dawson first fought in the lightweight division in March 2021 and scored a last-second TKO finish on Leonardo Santos. Seven months later, the 29-year-old received his first dent in his pro record after his fight with Ricky Glenn ended in a draw. He quickly bounced back, and racked up three straight wins over Jared Gordon, Mark Madsen, and Damir Ismagulov to earn his place in the rankings of the stacked lightweight division.

Bobby Green Recent Fight Results

Bobby Green is an MMA veteran who started competing professionally in 2008. He has fought in various organizations like the KOTC and Strikeforce before cracking a roster spot in the UFC in 2013. “King” already appeared in 22 bouts under the Las Vegas-based promotion and amassed a record of 11 wins, nine losses, one draw, and one no contest. The 37-year-old has faced some of the best fighters, like Edson Barboza, Dustin Poirier, and Islam Makhachev, but came up short.

Green has notable wins over James Krause, Clay Guida, Josh Thomson, Al Iaquinta, and Nasrat Haqparast. The Icon MMA representative’s last five fights resulted in an even record of two wins, two losses, and one no contest. The biggest win of his career by far was the third-round submission of former UFC Interim Lightweight champion Tony Ferguson in his previous fight last July 2023 at UFC 291.

Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green: Tale of the Tape

Grant DawsonBobby Green
Reach72 inches71 inches
Leg Reach40 inches40 inches
Fighting StyleBrazilian Jiu-JitsuMMA
Finishing Rate85%63%

The tale of the tape between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green is almost identical, as the former will enjoy an inch of reach advantage over the latter. Their height and leg reach are identical at 5-foot-10 and 40 inches. However, despite these similarities in the physical attributes, there are three glaring differences among them in terms of age, record, and finishing rate.

Dawson is eight years younger than Green at 29 years and has a better record of 20 wins with only one loss and one draw, while the “King” is already at 37 and has 30 wins with 14 losses, one draw, and one no contest to his tally. The younger fighter also has a higher finishing rate of 85% compared to the veteran, who has 63%.

In terms of fighting style, Green is the more well-rounded fighter because of his MMA fighting base, while Dawson is a grappling-based athlete who has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base. This stylistic difference is evident in their mode of victory as Green has 38% on decision wins, 34% TKO/KO rate, and 28% submission wins.

Meanwhile, Dawson gets 65% of wins via submission, 20% through TKO/KOs, and 15% through the judges’ scorecards. The difference in fighting style continues in the significant strikes and grappling numbers, with Green dominating the significant strikes numbers of 6.14 landed per minute with a 52% rate (against Dawson’s 2.99 with a 51% rate), but Dawson dominating the takedown average per 15 minutes with 3.7 (compared to Green’s 1.21).

Based on the statistics presented above, expect this match to clash between a striker and a grappler. Dawson is expected to fully utilize his elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills to try and submit Green. But Green is coming for Dawson’s head and will throw his strikes with bad intentions, as he is capable of doing so due to the power that he possesses.

The fight could come down to who executes their fight plan better. If Dawson successfully secures a takedown over Green, it would be another submission victory for him. But if Green stops the takedown attempts, frustrates Dawson, and finds a home for his punches, it will be a favorable result for him, either via TKO/KO finish or decision victory.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Grant Dawson.

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About the Author

Anatoly Pimentel

Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.