UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

For the second straight week, two middleweight contenders will be headlining the main event of the UFC Fight Night inside the Apex Center in Las Vegas, as No. 10-ranked contender Jack Hermansson faces the challenge of rising star Joe Pyfer.

We've got a middleweight main event this Saturday!@JackTheJokerMMA vs @Joe_Pyfer96 headlining #UFCVegas86 on ESPN+ 👊📺 pic.twitter.com/D527phdb6r

— UFC (@ufc) February 5, 2024

Hermansson looks to redeem himself with a win after receiving a defeat from his previous fight in December 2022 and defy the UFC odds stacked against him as he is the +190 betting underdog.

Meanwhile, Pyfer looks to break into the top 15 rankings with a victory over Hermansson and keep his perfect UFC record intact. He currently has three wins in the promotion which are all finishes.

Jack Hermansson Recent Fight Results

Hermansson is a seven-year UFC veteran who competed in 16 fights, winning 10 and dropping the other six. He made a successful debut in September 2016 when he unanimously beat Scott Askham. Following that inaugural win, the “Joker” experienced a roller coaster of results.

#UFCLondon Official Result: Jack Hermansson (@JackTheJokerMMA) (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) defeats Chris Curtis by Unanimous Decision.

Live Fight Results ➡️: https://t.co/7uWg2VFlAz

— UFC News (@UFCNews) July 23, 2022

The Norwegian athlete has defeated the likes of Bradley Scott, Gerald Meerschaert, David Branch, Jacare Souza, and Kelvin Gastelum, but lost to other top contenders Thiago Santos, Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, and Sean Strickland. Hermansson’s last fight was a second-round TKO loss to Roman Dolidze.

Joe Pyfer Recent Fight Results

Pyfer was a Dana White Contender Series alumni who scored a second-round TKO win over Osman Diaz to earn a contract with the UFC in July 2022. It was his second stint in the reality show after suffering a first-round TKO loss at the hands of Dustin Stoltzfus in August 2020.

One punch is all he needs 😳@Joe_Pyfer96 ready for his first main event this Saturday at #UFCVegas86! pic.twitter.com/csvfozIb46

— UFC (@ufc) February 5, 2024

Since stepping inside the Octagon, “Bodybagz” swept all three of his matches, beating Alen Amedovksi (first-round TKO in September 2022), Meerschaert (first-round TKO in April), and Abdul Razak Alhassan (second-round submission in October). A win for Pyfer could see him crack a spot in the top 15 rankings and extend his win streak to four.

Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer: Tale of the Tape

Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer: Fight Analysis

On paper, Hermansson has a 2-and-a-half inch reach (77.5 inches) and 5-and-a-half inch leg reach (46.5 inches) against Pyfer, who has 75 inches of reach and 41 inches of leg reach. However, Pyfer is 1 inch taller than Hermansson.

One massive difference between the two is their age because Hermansson is eight years older than Pyfer, which can be an advantage in terms of experience. However, it can also be a disadvantage for him because of the toll on his body and father time is catching up with him.

Stylistically, Hermansson is the more well-rounded fighter with his MMA approach compared to Pyfer’s heavy boxing style. Despite the difference in fighting style, Hermansson has more significant strikes landed per minute, with 5.13 (44% rate) compared to Pyfer’s 3.64 (45% rate).

Pyfer, though, has a better defense, as he only absorbs 2.34 significant strikes per minute (55% rate) against Hermansson’s 3.64 significant strikes absorbed per minute (55% rate). Surprisingly, their grappling numbers present a different perspective heading into the fight.

Even with his solid boxing background, Pyfer leads three of the four major categories in grappling because of his 2.97 takedown average per 15 minutes, 83% takedown accuracy, and 1.78 submission average per 15 minutes, which is way above Hermansson’s 1.66, 29%, and 0.44 output in the same category.

Hermansson thrives when he gets his opponents down the mat because he has two options on how he could finish them, either via submission or ground-and-pound. It is almost a guaranteed finish for him when he is on top and in full guard.

On the other hand, because of his solid boxing skills, Pyfer blossoms on his feet. He has an incredible combination of power and timing that was key in two of his victories under the promotion. When he lands a clean punch, it will be the beginning of the end for them.

The key for Hermansson is to close the distance and shoot for a takedown immediately so that he can nullify Pyfer’s power. This way, he can threaten multiple submissions and possibly sack a lot of energy from him.

Pyfer’s key to victory is to stop all of Hermansson’s takedown attempts and force a stand-up match to increase the chances of him landing his lethal punches. He could also be a counterpuncher and lure his Norwegian foe to move forward.

Official Prediction: TKO/KO victory for Joe Pyfer.