UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

An all-important UFC women’s bantamweight fight goes down this Saturday, July 15, inside the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, as No.3-ranked contender Holly Holm (15-6) is scheduled to take on No.10-ranked contender Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1). The winner of this match increases their UFC odds of getting a title shot, especially after Amanda Nunes relinquished the title through her retirement in June 2023.

No slowing down!@HollyHolm vs @MayraSheetara headlining #UFCVegas77 this Saturday 👊 pic.twitter.com/Ju6BzgaMSE

— UFC (@ufc) July 10, 2023

Holm will be the betting favorite in BetMGM’s online sportsbook at -150 because she ranks higher than Bueno Silva and because she was a former champion in 2015, when she famously pulled off a gigantic championship upset over Ronda Rousey. Meanwhile, despite her three consecutive wins (two came off submissions), Bueno Silva takes on the underdog role at +125.

Holly Holm Recent Fight Results

Holly Holm was an undefeated fighter and a former LFC champion when she joined the UFC in April 2014. She made her promotional debut in March 2015. She scored a split decision win over Raquel Pennington and unanimously defeated Marion Reneau in July 2015 to book her shot for the 135-pound title against Ronda Rousey. The two headlined UFC 193 in November 2015, and Holm uncorked a head kick knockout of Rousey to become the new undisputed champion.

Sadly, the title reign of “The Preacher’s Daughter” was short-lived as Miesha Tate dethroned her in March 2016 via fifth-round submission. Since that loss, Holm has split her next 10 fights by racking up five wins and suffering five losses. A big factor for this up-and-down performance from the 41-year-old is the injuries she sustained between training camps. Holm’s latest fight resulted in a unanimous decision win over Yana Santos in March 2023.

A knockout heard around the world! 💥@HollyHolm headlines once again at #UFCVegas77 this Saturday! pic.twitter.com/NHWYfgATgJ

— UFC (@ufc) July 10, 2023

Mayra Bueno Silva Recent Fight Results

Like Holm, Mayra Bueno Silva was also an undefeated prospect when she cracked a roster spot with the UFC in 2018. Her route to the Las Vegas-based promotion was through Dana White’s Contender Series, where she submitted Mayana Kellem in the opening round via Ninja choke. She officially made her debut in the world’s leading promotion in September 2018, where she scored another first-round submission, this time against Gillian Robertson.

Since that astounding debut win, “Sheetara” accumulated a record of one victory (over Mara Borella), two losses (from Maryna Moroz and Manon Fiorot), and one draw (with Montana De La Rosa) in her next four fights. After that four-fight stretch, the Brazilian has racked up three straight wins, including two stoppages over Wu Yanan, Stephanie Egger, and Lina Lansberg, to find herself in the top-10 rankings of the bantamweight division.

#UFCVegas69 Official Result: Mayra Bueno Silva (@MayraSheetara) defeats Lina Lansberg by Submission due to a Knee Bar at 4:45 in Round 2.

All Fight Results ➡️: https://t.co/EgodHDjUD1

— UFC News (@UFCNews) February 18, 2023

Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva: Tale of the Tape

Holly Holm vs. Mayra Bueno Silva: Fight Analysis

Based on the tale of the tape between Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva, the youth advantage sways toward the latter’s direction as she is a decade younger. Bueno Silva will also enjoy an inch of leg reach advantage against Holm; however, the former champion will hold an upper hand of two inches of height and 2.5 inches of reach.

Stylistically, both have a similar striking-based technique that is supported by their significant strikes numbers of 3.17 landed per minute (40%) and 2.77 absorbed per minute (56%) for Holm and 4.20 landed per minute (54%) and 4.71 absorbed per minute (58%) for Bueno Silva. However, there is a big discrepancy in the method of victory, as Holm sports a 57% TKO/KO rate, while Bueno Silva only has 10%.

Despite having a striking-based fighting approach, the Brazilian has a big chunk of her wins via submissions at 70%. But surprisingly, Bueno Silva’s grappling numbers are at par with Holm’s. “Sheetara” leads in takedown accuracy at 50% (against Holm’s 31%) and submission average per 15 minutes at 1.51 (compared to Holm’s 0.06), but Holm takes the driver’s seat in takedown average per 15 minutes at 0.91 (versus Bueno Silva’s 0.38) and takedown defense of 78% (against Bueno Silva’s 67%).

Holm’s key to victory is maintaining her distance for her strikes, particularly her patented kicks. She has a very technical and unique combination, as she puts her kicks at the tail-end of her punches, often catching her opponents off guard. These combinations culminate in the power that the 41-year-old possesses, primarily thanks to her kickboxing background.

On the other hand, Bueno Silva should seek submission opportunities to neutralize and possibly remove Holm’s power striking in the match. Although she has a decent striking game, it would be a mistake for her to fully engage with the former champion on her feet throughout the match. The 31-year-old needs to utilize her Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game.

It will be a tough task, as Holm has a solid takedown defense, and Bueno Silva will likely be met with knees in the clinch. However, thanks to her constantly improving striking game, the Brazilian can employ a level change to possibly secure a takedown. Bueno Silva should make Holm believe it will be a striking match; then, she can maneuver her way into a grappling battle.

The Chute Boxe representative should also take a page from Miesha Tate as she could submit Holm, the only submission loss in the former champion’s career. Additionally, Bueno Silva can catch the leg of Holm once she throws a kick to take off her balance and eventually get the pivotal takedown. Once this happens, she will present herself with the biggest opportunity to win the fight.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Mayra Bueno Silva.

See the entire UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva odds and wagers here.