UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

MMA action shifts back inside the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, where a high-level welterweight bout headlines the card. No. 9-ranked lightweight contender Rafael Dos Anjos continues his quest to crack a spot in the welterweight rankings, as he faces No. 10-ranked welterweight contender Vicente Luque in an all-Brazilian showdown. Dos Anjos is the betting favorite in UFC odds at -140, while Luque is the betting underdog at +115.

Brazil against Brazil in the top spot Saturday!

🇧🇷@VicenteLuqueMMA vs 🇧🇷@RdosAnjosMMA headlines #UFCVegas78 this weekend! pic.twitter.com/qaOwEMnLgc

— UFC (@ufc) August 7, 2023

There’re two reasons for Dos Anjos’ role as the betting favorite: He is fresh off a triumphant return to the 170-pound division where he submitted Bryan Barberena in December 2022, and his wealth of experience fighting the best athletes in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions. Meanwhile, Luque is on a two-fight skid, losing his last two bouts to Belal Muhammad and Geoff Neal.

Vicente Luque Recent Fight Results

Vicente Luque’s route to the UFC was through The Ultimate Fighter 21, where he was part of the Blackzillians team. He fought in the final event of the reality series but lost to Michael Graves. Despite the defeat, Luque was still able to crack a roster spot in the Las Vegas-based promotion and continued to compete for seven years.

“The Silent Assassin” won 14 fights, including 13 finishes, and suffered five losses. Notable fighters he defeated were Niko Price, Jalin Turner, Barberena, Mike Perry, Tyron Woodley, and Michael Chiesa. Luque’s five defeats under the UFC were from Graves, Leon Edwards, Stephen Thompson, Muhammad, and Neal.

Pulled out the reverse card to end it! 🔄@VicenteLuqueMMA returns to the Octagon SATURDAY! #UFCVegas78 | Live on @ESPN / ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/eVz12S7gtu

— UFC (@ufc) August 7, 2023

Rafael Dos Anjos Recent Fight Results

Rafael Dos Anjos is a UFC veteran who made his promotional debut in November 2016 when he suffered a third-round knockout loss to Jeremy Stephens in their lightweight match. Since that loss, “RDA” climbed to the top of the 155-pound division and earned his shot for the title in March 2015 against Anthony Pettis.

Dos Anjos became the undisputed champion by beating Pettis unanimously and successfully defending his belt against Donald Cerrone in December 2015. Unfortunately, his reign was short-lived, as Eddie Alvarez defeated him in November 2016. Since then, Dos Anjos fought in 13 fights, winning seven and losing six across two weight classes in the lightweight and welterweight divisions.

RDA GETS IT DONE!!@RdosAnjosMMA earns his 21st victory inside the Octagon with a 2nd round sub against Bryan Barberena 💪 pic.twitter.com/CpRMbhxkLP

— UFC (@ufc) December 4, 2022

Vicente Luque vs. Rafael Dos Anjos: Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque vs. Rafael Dos Anjos: Fight Analysis

The match  favors Luque, who enjoys three inches of height and a five-and-a-half of reach edge over Dos Anjos. Furthermore, he’s seven years younger at 31, has the better record (only nine losses), and leads in finishing rate at 90%, compared to RDA, who is already 38 years old with 14 losses and 50% of finishing rate.

Stylistically, it’s a contrasting matchup as Luque has a fighting base of Muay Thai, while Dos Anjos sports a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu style. This difference in fighting style is evident in the significant strike numbers, where Luque has better statistics of 5.49 significant strikes landed per minute with a 52% rate versus Dos Anjos’ 3.56 significant strikes landed per minute with a 47% rate.

In the grappling department, Dos Anjos is considerably ahead in takedown average per 15 minutes with 2.05 compared to Luque’s 0.51. However, Luque has slightly better numbers in the three other major grappling categories, such as takedown accuracy (50% versus 35%), takedown defense (61% versus 59%), and submission average (0.76 versus 0.59).

Both Luque and Dos Anjos are used to fighting contrasting styles against their opponents, with Luque knocking out grappling and wrestling-based fighters and Dos Anjos submitting strikers. Luque, though, has a history of struggling with top-level grapplers and wrestlers, as seen in his losses to Graves and Muhammad, where he gave up at least five takedowns.

On the flip side, Dos Anjos has experienced success and victory against taller opponents and strikers, which saw him conquer the lightweight division in his first eight years in the UFC. Additionally, RDA has a solid stand-up game, making him a threat on the feet, thus preventing his opponents from thinking that he can be bullied with powerful strikes.

This fight comes down to whoever executes their fight plan better. Luque is expected to pour on the pressure early in an attempt to set up and land a match-altering punch or kick. At the same time, Dos Anjos will look for an opportunity to engage in grappling positions to slowly maneuver his way into a submission attempt that could make Luque tap, much like he did against Barberena in his previous victory.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Rafael Dos Anjos.

See the entire UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos odds and wagers here.