UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

min read
Tai Tuivasa, top, fights Greg Hardy during a UFC 264 heavyweight mixed martial arts bout Saturday, July 10, 2021, in Las Vegas.
(AP Photo/John Locher)
Anatoly Pimentel @AnatolyPimentel Mar 12, 2024, 8:05 PM
  • No. 9 heavyweight contender Tai Tuivasa will face the No. 10-rated challenger Marcin Tybura in the main event of UFC Fight Night this weekend.
  • Both Tuivasa and Tybura are coming off a loss from their previous fights.
  • Tuivasa is the -130 betting favorite, and Tybura is the +110 betting underdog.

Another massive UFC heavyweight showdown will be witnessed inside the APEX Center in Las Vegas as two ranked divisional contenders, Tai Tuivasa (#9) and Marcin Tybura (#10), headline the main event of the fight night this Saturday.

Tuivasa and Tybura look to bounce back from their previous fights, as the former is currently on a three-fight skid, while the latter was handed a first-round TKO loss in July. Despite his current losing streak, Tuivasa remains the betting favorite in UFC odds at -130.

On the other hand, oddsmakers tag Tybura as the +110 betting underdog, even though he won seven of his last 10 bouts inside the Octagon, better than Tuivasa’s 5-5 record from his past 10 matches.

Tai Tuivasa Recent Fight Results

When Tuivasa was signed by the UFC in 2017, he was an undefeated prospect who had won his first seven fights in his professional MMA career. He quickly racked up three successive wins in the promotion by beating Rashad Coulter, Cyril Asker, and Andrei Arlovksi.

Following his mini three-fight win streak, he suffered three straight losses, but quickly bounced back by stringing up five consecutive victories inside the Octagon. This impressive stretch earned him the opportunity to win the UFC interim heavyweight title in September 2022.

However, Tuivasa was knocked out by Ciryl Gane in their interim title fight, and since then, he hasn’t won a fight after receiving two more losses courtesy of Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov.

Marcin Tybura Recent Fight Results

Before he joined the UFC in 2016, Tybura was a former M-1 Challenge heavyweight champion with 13 wins and only one defeat in his pro record. He was rudely welcomed to the promotion by Tim Johnson, who unanimously beat him during his debut in April 2016.

After that forgettable first fight inside the Octagon, Tybura won 11 of his 17 fights and scored notable victories over the likes of Luis Henrique, Arlovski, Serghei Spivac, Greg Hardy, Alexander Romanov, and Ben Rothwell to earn his spot in the top 10 of the division.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura: Tale of the Tape

Tai TuivasaMarcin Tybura
Reach75 inches78 inches
Leg Reacg39.5 inches46 inches
Fighting StyleStrikerMMA
Finishing Rate93%63%

Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Tuivasa and Tybura favors the latter, as he’ll enjoy 3 inches of reach and 7.5 inches of leg reach advantage over the former. However, Tuivasa will have the edge in youth because he is eight years younger than Tybura.

Both have a solid striking base for fighting, with Tuivasa having a striker fighting style and Tybura with his MMA approach. This is evident in their significant strike output. “Bam Bam” has 3.98 significant strikes landed per minute (49% rate), and “Tybur” has 3.55 significant strikes landed per minute (48% rate).

In the grappling department, Tybura has the advantage in all four major categories: 1.39 takedown average per 15 minutes (0 for Tuivasa), 33% takedown accuracy (0% for Tuivasa), 79% takedown defense (54% for Tuivasa), and 0.07 submission average per 15 minutes (0 for Tuivasa).

Although Tybura has a massive upper hand in grappling, Tuivasa’s takedown defense should be enough for him to stop the takedown attempts and keep the fight on the feet. Furthermore, Tybura has a bad history against power punchers, and I think Tuivasa can land a clean punch that could send him to another dimension.

The former UFC interim title challenger must still be careful with any submission attempts and maneuvers that Tybura could attempt during the match because he also has a poor record against fighters with decent grappling. Thus, he is coming off a submission loss from Volkov.

Official Prediction: TKO/KO victory for Tai Tuivasa.

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About the Author

Anatoly Pimentel

Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.