UFC Paris: Gane vs. Spivac Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

A high-class heavyweight bout goes down inside the Accor Arena in Paris this Saturday, Sept. 2, as No. 2-ranked contender Ciryl Gane and No. 7-ranked challenger Serghei Spivac headline the main event of UFC’s return in France. Despite losing his previous fight with Jon Jones for the heavyweight title in March 2023, Gane is still the betting favorite in the UFC odds at -165.

Bonjour fight fans! 👋

The Octagon's back in France for #UFCParis this Saturday! 🇫🇷

[ 3pmET / 12pmPT Main Card | Live on ESPN & ESPN+ ] pic.twitter.com/07ibOVab4x

— UFC (@ufc) August 28, 2023

Meanwhile, Spivac, who currently rides a three-fight win streak, takes the betting underdog role at +135. This is an all-important match in the heavyweight division, as it can shape up the next title challenger. The winner of this gigantic clash will have a significant boost in securing a shot against the reigning UFC heavyweight champion, Jon Jones.

This upcoming match will also be the 11th Octagon appearance for both Gane and Spivac, where they almost have an identical UFC record, with the former having eight wins and two losses, while the latter has seven wins and three losses.

Ciryl Gane Recent Fight Results

Ciryl Gane is a former Muay Thai champion and a former TKO Major League MMA champion before joining the UFC in 2019. He made his debut in August 2019 and quickly accumulated six consecutive victories over Raphael Pessoa, Don’Tale Mayes, Tanner Boser, Junior Dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Alexander Volkov to set up an interim heavyweight title match with Derrick Lewis.

In August 2021, “Bon Gamin” defeated Lewis via third-round TKO to win the interim title and earn his first world title opportunity against Francis Ngannou. Gane and Ngannou headlined UFC 270 in January 2022, where “The Predator” eked out a unanimous decision victory to deny the Frenchman the undisputed crown.

Eight months later, the 33-year-old rebounded from that Ngannou loss by beating Tai Tuivasa in September 2023 via third-round knockout. That impressive win obtained Gane another world title shot against Jon Jones at UFC 285. Unfortunately, he was submitted in the opening round via Guillotine choke and again fell short of becoming the division’s king.

Last year's first ever #UFCParis ended like THIS 💥

🇫🇷@Ciryl_Gane defends home turf once again on Saturday!

[ 3pmET / 12pmPT Main Card | Live on ESPN & ESPN+ ] pic.twitter.com/O0FlOumvpP

— UFC (@ufc) August 28, 2023

Serghei Spivac Recent Fight Results

Serghei Spivac was an undefeated heavyweight prospect with an undefeated record of nine wins and nine finishes (five submissions and four TKO/KOs) when he joined the UFC in 2019. It was a shaky start for “The Polar Bear” as he absorbed two losses from his first three UFC bouts. Walt Harris and Marcin Tybura defeated him while he submitted Tuivasa.

Following that 1-3 start, the “Polar Bear” collected three straight victories against Carlos Felipe, Jared Vanderaa, and Aleksei Oleinik. His total ascent to the division’s top was delayed by a first-round TKO loss to Tom Aspinall in September 2021. But since then, he strung up another three straight wins.

Spivac scored TKO wins over Greg Hardy in March 2022 and Augusto Sakai in August 2022. The 28-year-old’s latest win came against Derrick Lewis in February 2023 when he submitted him via Arm-triangle choke in the opening round of their match. He hopes to add Gane to his pile of wins and move up in the heavyweight rankings.

The Polar Bear's coming for his FOURTH straight finish on Saturday 🐻‍❄️💪

Serghei Spivac's ready to face Ciryl Gane at #UFCParis!

[ 3pmET / 12pmPT Main Card | Live on ESPN+ ] pic.twitter.com/nmAqcedZSh

— UFC (@ufc) August 29, 2023

Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac: Tale of the Tape

Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac: Fight Analysis

On paper, a few inches separate Gane and Spivac against each other. Gane is an inch taller at 6 feet 4 inches than Spivac, who stands at 6 feet 3 inches. The Frenchman will also hold three inches of reach advantage at 81 inches compared to the Moldovan’s 78 inches of reach. However, Spivac will enjoy a two-inch leg reach advantage at 44 inches versus Gane’s 42 inches of leg reach.

Both heavyweights have an excellent professional record of only sustaining a few losses and have a high finishing rate of over 70%. However, their fighting style sets them apart because Gane will bring his striking arsenal through his Muay Thai background, and Spivac carries his grappling specialty via his Sambo credentials.

This difference in fighting style is more evident in the significant strikes and grappling numbers. Gane leads in all the major categories in the striking department with 5.08 significant strikes landed per minute with a 59% rate, against Spivac’s 3.79 with a 51% rate. This lead continues on the defensive end as “Bon Gamin” only absorbs 2.25 significant strikes per minute at 2.25 with a 62% rate compared to Spivac’s 2.84 with a 55% rate.

However, “The Polar Bear” dominates the grappling statistics with a 5.05 takedown average per 15 minutes (versus Gane’s 0.51), takedown accuracy of 65% (against Gane’s 21%), takedown defense of 70% (compared to Gane’s 45%), and submission average per 15 minutes of 0.56 (in contrast of Gane’s 0.51). Fans will be treated to another classic matchup of a striker versus grappler.

Gane and Spivac have experienced difficulties fighting an opposite stylistic opponent, with Gane being submitted by Jones and Spivac being knocked out by Harris and Aspinall. It boils down to who will execute their fight plan better and who has learned their lesson from those setbacks, especially since this high-stakes clash will inch them closer to a world title shot.

One significant factor, though, will be Gane’s agility and fast movement, which gave other heavyweight contenders big problems because they couldn’t get a hold of him, and he lands strikes accurately. This is mainly credited to his Muay Thai roots, and it will be on full display this Saturday in front of his home fans in Paris as he gives them another spectacular performance en route to a possible finish.

Official Prediction: TKO/KO victory for Ciryl Gane.

See the entire UFC Paris: Gane vs. Spivac odds and wagers here.