UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs. Lewis Fight Card, Prediction, & Odds

The UFC is returning to Brazil, as two ranked heavyweight contenders will headline the card on Nov. 4 inside the Ibirapuera Arena in Sao Paulo. No. 9-ranked contender Jailton Almeida (19-2) faces the No. 10-ranked divisional contender Derrick Lewis (27-11) for an opportunity to move up in the rankings and improve their UFC odds of earning a title shot.

Brazil, we are BACK 🇧🇷@Malhadinho_UFC vs @TheBeast_UFC headlining #UFCSP this Saturday! pic.twitter.com/qOrIX6fURv

— UFC (@ufc) October 30, 2023

“Malhadinho” is the heavy betting favorite coming into this fight at -500 not only because of his better record, but also because he is still undefeated under the Las Vegas-based promotion with a 5-0 slate. Meanwhile, “The Black Beast” only has two victories in his last five fights. A win for either man would start a path toward a possible title run.

Jailton Almeida Recent Fight Results

Almeida was a highly touted prospect when he joined Dana White’s Contender Series during Season 5, Week 3, in Sept. 2021 because he has an impressive MMA record of 13 wins and two losses, with all of his victories being finishes. The Brazilian fought Nasrudin Nasrudinov in the contender series and submitted him in the second round to earn his spot in the UFC roster.

“Malhadinho” officially made his UFC debut in Feb. 2022 as a light heavyweight with a TKO of Danilo Marques in the opening round of their fight. The 32-year-old moved up in weight and added Parker Porter, Anton Turkalj, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Jairzinho Rozenstriuk to his victim list, setting up a massive clash with Lewis.

5-0 in the Octagon, finished ALL of his opponents 😳@Malhadinho_UFC is ready for Derrick Lewis next at #UFCSP! pic.twitter.com/RKLEaoxey1

— UFC (@ufc) October 30, 2023

Derrick Lewis Recent Fight Results

Lewis is a UFC veteran who has almost a decade of fighting in the UFC. The 4oz Fight Club representative has 27 fights under the Dana White-headed promotion and amassed a record of 18 wins and nine losses. Some of the notable opponents that Lewis defeated were Roy Nelson, Travis Browne, Francis Ngannou, Alexander Volkov, Curtis Blaydes, and Chris Daukaus.

“The Black Beast” fought Daniel Cormier for the UFC heavyweight title in November of 2018, but was submitted in the second round. The 38-year-old was also pitted against Ciryl Gane in August. 2021 for the interim heavyweight belt, but also lost via third-round TKO. Lewis is coming off an incredible 33-second TKO finish of Marcos Rogério de Lima to halt his three-fight skid.

Derrick Lewis FLYING KNEE 🚨@TheBeast_UFC finished his last fight in 33 seconds, can he do it again at #UFCSP Saturday!? pic.twitter.com/5v6fKnrVvv

— UFC (@ufc) October 30, 2023

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis: Tale of the Tape

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Almeida and Lewis is virtually identical, with both fighters having the same height at 6-foot-3, the exact reach of 79 inches, and the same leg reach at 43.5 inches. Their age and record were the two major differences, with the Brazilian being the younger fighter at 32 and having a better record of 19-2 against Lewis, who is already 38 years old with a record of 27-11.

Both heavyweight contenders have a similar fighting style, with Almeida having boxing as his fighting base and Lewis being the brawler type. Almeida and Lewis also have a high finish rate, with the former boasting his 100% rate while the latter flexing his 85%. The 100% finishing rate for the Brazilian consists of both TKO/KOs and submission wins, while Lewis’ finishes were mostly TKO/KOs.

Almeida leads in the significant strikes department with 3.81 significant strikes landed per minute at a 64% rate (compared to Lewis’ 2.6 with a 50% rate) and 0.3 significant strikes absorbed per minute at a 25% rate (against Lewis’ 2.59 with 41% rate). This dominance in numbers carries over to the grappling area.

The No. 9-ranked divisional contender has better grappling numbers of 6.4 takedown average per 15 minutes, 68% takedown accuracy, and 2.46 submission average per 15 minutes against the No. 10-ranked challenger with only a 0.59 takedown average per 15 minutes, 28% takedown accuracy, and 0 submission average per 15 minutes. The only percentage that Lewis is better than Almeida is the takedown defense, with 52% against the latter’s 50%.

Despite being known for his elite boxing skills, Almeida is expected to use his superior grappling against Lewis to neutralize the power that “The Black Beast” possesses. This was the same fight plan he had when he fought the equally powerful Rozenstruik in May 2023, where he got the first-round rear-naked choke finish.

On the other hand, Lewis wants to impose his will early in the fight, just like he did against de Lima in his previous fight in July 2023 when he landed a massive flying knee that instantly dropped his opponent. It was also the beginning of the end for the Brazilian as the former title challenger pounded him for the finish.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Jailton Almeida.