Virginia vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Mar. 2

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Duke head coach Jon Scheyer watches from the sideline against North Carolina State during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Raleigh, N.C., Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2023.
(AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 02, 2024, 12:41 PM
  • Duke (16-11) is a -9.5 point favorite vs Virginia (15-13)
  • Total (Over/Under): 124.5 points
  • Virginia / Duke TV channel: ESPN

The Virginia Cavaliers (15-13) visit Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on the Duke Blue Devils (16-11) on Mar. 2. Tip off is scheduled for 6:00pm EST in Durham, NC.

Duke is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Virginia vs. Duke Over/Under is 124.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia+9.5 -110O 124.5 -110+375
Duke -9.5 -110U 124.5 -110-500

Virginia vs Duke Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Duke will win this college basketball game with 83.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Virginia vs Duke Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+5.40 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.35 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 33 games (+11.95 Units / 3% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the Spread in 21 of their last 34 games (+7.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+1.95 Units / 1% ROI)

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has a 16-12 record against the spread this college basketball season (+2.8 Units / 8.78% ROI).

  • 18-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.85 Units / 5.95% ROI
  • 12-17 when betting the Over for -6.9 Units / -21.46% ROI
  • 17-12 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 12.3% ROI

Duke Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Duke has a 16-11 record against the spread this college basketball season (+3.9 Units / 12.66% ROI).

  • 17-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -2.83% ROI
  • 12-16 when betting the Over for -5.55 Units / -18.05% ROI
  • 16-12 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 9.08% ROI

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (883 assists/ 474 TOs) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has averaged 8.5 turnovers per game (474 turnovers/56 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.7

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (299 assists/ 189 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (364 assists/ 193 TOs) this season — tied for best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (365 assists/ 221 TOs) this season — tied for 8th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Duke is shooting 41% from three (100/241) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 35%

Duke has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (193 assists/ 102 TOs) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.3

Duke is shooting 48% (664/1,374) this season — 16th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 45%

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has allowed 24.1 points per game (555 points/23 games) in the first half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 32.6

Virginia has allowed 24.1 points per game (555 points/23 games) in the first half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 32.6

Virginia has allowed 55.2 points per game (1,931 points/35 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 68.1

Virginia has allowed 59.6 points per game (953 points/16 games) this season — best among Power Conference defenses; League Avg: 76.1

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has averaged 26.5 defensive rebounds per game (609 rebounds/23 games) this season — tied for 41st best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.7

Duke has averaged 26.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,573 rebounds/59 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 28th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.3

Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (388/1,242) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 14th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Duke has allowed an average of 1.13 points per shot (3,843 points/3,406 shots) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.20


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.